Cibola Plan · Providence Village, TX 76227

$239,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 657 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Large homesites
• Garage
• Listed 656 days

Tags

• LARGE HOMESITES
• PRIVATE ONSITE AMENITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $239,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,178.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-551 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James A Monaco (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 537 students, 36% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 2658 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 96d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 657 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 657 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,178
• List price: $239,999
• Delta: -27.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1936 Ventasso Blvd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-3%)	0mo	$266,999	$180	68
1848 Ventasso Blvd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-3%)	1mo	$266,999	$180	60
1840 Ventasso Blvd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-3%)	1mo	$269,000	$181	60
11000 Losino Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	0mo	$269,999	$193	60
1812 Ventasso Blvd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-3%)	1mo	$262,359	$177	59
11205 Dales Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-3%)	1mo	$271,999	$183	54
4213 Jutland Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,676 (+9%)	2mo	$279,999	$167	51
3012 Campeiro Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+8%)	1mo	$265,359	$160	50
4104 Jutland Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,716 (+12%)	0mo	$287,999	$168	48
4212 Jutland Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,716 (+12%)	1mo	$280,999	$164	46
3156 Campeiro Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-8%)	1mo	$250,999	$178	44
3164 Campeiro Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	1mo	$245,999	$175	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-94,805
• Equity at exit: $49,082

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-152,333
• Equity at exit: $28,461

Cash invested: $92,170 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 106 active · 77 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $298,000 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 2658
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,726
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,938/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,880

Max offer price $249,427

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-324	-5% $-437	+0% $-551	+5% $-665	+10% $-779
Rent	-10% $-724	-5% $-637	+0% $-551	+5% $-465	+10% $-379
Rate	-1.0pp $-385	-0.5pp $-467	base $-551	+0.5pp $-636	+1.0pp $-723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,295
• Closing costs: $9,875
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9901 Concord Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,000	$1.25	46d	1	0.20mi
1909 Nokota Pkwy Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,350	$1.14	102d	1	0.23mi
1820 Plymouth Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	2218	$2,475	$1.12	99d	1	0.23mi
1916 Monchino Pl Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,350	$1.14	140d	1	0.25mi
1900 Monchino Pl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,345	$1.30	115d	1	0.28mi
9915 Wethers Field Cir Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$1,999	$0.96	113d	1	0.29mi
1821 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,825	$1.23	121d	1	0.29mi
1808 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1678	$1,899	$1.13	115d	1	0.32mi
1805 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	32d	1	0.33mi
1948 Ventasso Blvd Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,200	$1.31	21d	1	0.37mi
10120 Cherry Hill Ln Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1912	$1,995	$1.04	116d	1	0.38mi
10113 Hanover Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	3.0	2100	$1,895	$0.90	85d	1	0.41mi
1932 Ventasso Blvd Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	25d	1	0.41mi
1932 Ventasso Blvd Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	32d	1	0.41mi
5953 Revere Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,399	$1.31	141d	1	0.46mi
9185 Blackstone Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$1,925	$1.04	91d	1	0.49mi
9185 Blackstone Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1808	$1,925	$1.06	95d	1	0.49mi
11025 Triple Crown Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,195	$1.22	36d	1	0.50mi
11033 Triple Crown Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	8d	1	0.51mi
3009 Dutch Rd Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2210	$2,495	$1.13	140d	1	0.54mi
1817 Ventasso Blvd Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1716	$2,395	$1.40	82d	1	0.55mi
3008 Dutch Rd Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,400	$1.16	1d	1	0.56mi
3020 Dutch Rd Providence Village, TX	4.0	3.0	2210	$2,300	$1.04	13d	1	0.56mi
3009 Tokara St Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,900	$1.35	140d	1	0.59mi
9145 Blackstone Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,300	$1.20	6d	1	0.60mi
9136 Benevolent Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,100	$1.27	95d	1	0.61mi
3112 Tokara St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,045	$1.45	140d	1	0.62mi
3009 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,155	$1.35	140d	1	0.64mi
3041 Burmese St Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	140d	1	0.64mi
3141 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1402	$1,945	$1.39	65d	1	0.65mi
3157 Burmese St Providence Village, TX	4.0	3.0	1954	$2,200	$1.13	65d	1	0.65mi
9117 Waterman Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,031	$0.98	40d	1	0.66mi
3168 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	140d	1	0.67mi
3120 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,400	$1.45	58d	1	0.67mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	95d	1	0.68mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	104d	1	0.68mi
3160 Burmese St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,795	$1.27	65d	1	0.68mi
3185 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	19d	1	0.69mi
3105 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	121d	1	0.69mi
3117 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,895	$1.35	104d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-25
   days on market $239,999 Active 657 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $239,999 Active 656 DOM
3. 2026-09-23
   days on market $239,999 Active 655 DOM
4. 2026-09-22
   days on market $239,999 Active 654 DOM
5. 2026-09-21
   days on market $239,999 Active 653 DOM
6. 2026-09-20
   days on market $239,999 Active 652 DOM
7. 2026-09-19
   days on market $239,999 Active 651 DOM
8. 2026-09-18
   days on market $239,999 Active 650 DOM
9. 2026-09-17
   days on market $239,999 Active 649 DOM
10. 2026-09-16
    days on market $239,999 Active 648 DOM
11. 2026-09-15
    days on market $239,999 Active 647 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    days on market $239,999 Active 646 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $239,999 Active 645 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $239,999 Active 644 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $239,999 Active 643 DOM
16. 2026-09-06
    price $239,999 Active 637 DOM
17. 2026-09-05
    days on market $254,999 Active 637 DOM
18. 2026-09-04
    days on market $254,999 Active 636 DOM
19. 2026-09-02
    days on market $254,999 Active 634 DOM
20. 2026-08-31
    days on market $254,999 Active 632 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $254,999 Active 630 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $254,999 Active 629 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $254,999 Active 628 DOM
24. 2026-08-26
    days on market $254,999 Active 627 DOM
25. 2026-08-25
    days on market $254,999 Active 626 DOM
26. 2026-08-24
    days on market $254,999 Active 625 DOM
27. 2026-08-23
    days on market $254,999 Active 624 DOM
28. 2026-08-22
    days on market $254,999 Active 623 DOM
29. 2026-08-21
    days on market $254,999 Active 622 DOM
30. 2026-08-20
    days on market $254,999 Active 621 DOM
31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $254,999 Active 620 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    days on market $254,999 Active 619 DOM
33. 2026-08-17
    days on market $254,999 Active 618 DOM
34. 2026-08-16
    days on market $254,999 Active 617 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $254,999 Active 616 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $254,999 Active 615 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $254,999 Active 614 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $254,999 Active 613 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $254,999 Active 612 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $254,999 Active 611 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $254,999 Active 610 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $254,999 Active 609 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $254,999 Active 607 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $254,999 Active 606 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $254,999 Active 605 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $254,999 Active 604 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $254,999 Active 601 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $254,999 Active 600 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $254,999 Active 599 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    days on market $254,999 Active 598 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,439
• − Property taxes: −$4,938
• − Insurance: −$1,646
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$9,576
• Taxable loss: −$12,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,025
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James A Monaco C+ TX #574/4,322 Nat'l #9,382/41,679 Middle Aubrey Middle D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Aubrey H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Providence Village

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #10856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence Village, TX
• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

---

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $254,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $252,999 Zillow
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $249,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $244,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-06 Listed $250,999 Zillow