4398 Ventura Place Dr · Concord, MO 63128

$250,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2004 10,454 sqft lot ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculately maintained 2-sty home, original owner sought after Mehlville scl district. The property boasts 4 BR, 4.5 bath & 3 car gar w/ large driveway. Enjoy the beautiful landscaping that greets you to the covered front porch where you enter FR w/ bay windows, gas burning fireplace to enjoy the cozy evenings. The interior features bright natural light. The gorgeous kitchen boasts granite island & countertops w/double-stacked edge, full height granite backsplashes, gas stove, and SS appliances. The breakfast room offers w/ bay door & leads you to the patio. The inviting hearth room features wood burning FP. The spacious master suite offers master bath w/ 2 sinks, a separate jacuzzi tub & shower & a walk-in closet. The other 3 large BR, a loft, laundry area complete the 2nd fl. Large partially finished LL features 9 ft ceiling w/ a recreation area, media room, bonus room, FR & a full bath. Desirable quiet neighborhood.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-773/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#175 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trautwein Elem. (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 359 students, 42% FRL); Mehlville High School (math 26% / reading 54%, grade F, #243 of 521 statewide, top 47%, 1,440 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,613 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $534,540
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4849 Sharlane Dr	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,446 (-3%)	20mo	$374,900	$109	60
5131 Butler Bend Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,765 (+6%)	8mo	$620,000	$165	52
4727 Auburn Trace Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,748 (+6%)	11mo	$549,900	$147	47
4609 Butler Bend Ct	0.72mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,310 (-6%)	14mo	$500,000	$151	39
4770 Oakbrier Dr	0.75mi	4/3.5	3,220 (-9%)	17mo	$449,900	$140	36
5138 Butler Bend Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,282 (-7%)	21mo	$564,900	$172	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,650
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-54,090
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63128

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,274/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,348

Max offer price $238,614

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $6	+0% $-64	+5% $-135	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-154	+0% $-64	+5% $25	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $-1	base $-64	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4446 Skyridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2770	$2,706	$0.98	3d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   historical
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $250,000
3. 2023-05-25
   soldstatus
4. 2023-05-23
   soldstatus Closed 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Immaculately maintained 2-sty home, original owner sought after Mehlville scl district. The property boasts 4 BR, 4.5 bath & 3 car gar w/ large driveway. Enjoy the beautiful landscaping that greets you to the covered front porch where you enter FR w/ bay windows, gas burning fireplace to enjoy the cozy evenings. The interior features bright natural light. The gorgeous kitchen boasts granite island & countertops w/double-stacked edge, full height granite backsplashes, gas stove, and SS appliances. The breakfast room offers w/ bay door & leads you to the patio. The inviting hearth room features wood burning FP. The spacious master suite offers master bath w/ 2 sinks, a separate jacuzzi tub & shower & a walk-in closet. The other 3 large BR, a loft, laundry area complete the 2nd fl. Large partially finished LL features 9 ft ceiling w/ a recreation area, media room, bonus room, FR & a full bath. Desirable quiet neighborhood.

5. 2023-04-29
   status Pending 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Immaculately maintained 2-sty home, original owner sought after Mehlville scl district. The property boasts 4 BR, 4.5 bath & 3 car gar w/ large driveway. Enjoy the beautiful landscaping that greets you to the covered front porch where you enter FR w/ bay windows, gas burning fireplace to enjoy the cozy evenings. The interior features bright natural light. The gorgeous kitchen boasts granite island & countertops w/double-stacked edge, full height granite backsplashes, gas stove, and SS appliances. The breakfast room offers w/ bay door & leads you to the patio. The inviting hearth room features wood burning FP. The spacious master suite offers master bath w/ 2 sinks, a separate jacuzzi tub & shower & a walk-in closet. The other 3 large BR, a loft, laundry area complete the 2nd fl. Large partially finished LL features 9 ft ceiling w/ a recreation area, media room, bonus room, FR & a full bath. Desirable quiet neighborhood.

6. 2023-03-01
   listed $549,900 Active 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Immaculately maintained 2-sty home, original owner sought after Mehlville scl district. The property boasts 4 BR, 4.5 bath & 3 car gar w/ large driveway. Enjoy the beautiful landscaping that greets you to the covered front porch where you enter FR w/ bay windows, gas burning fireplace to enjoy the cozy evenings. The interior features bright natural light. The gorgeous kitchen boasts granite island & countertops w/double-stacked edge, full height granite backsplashes, gas stove, and SS appliances. The breakfast room offers w/ bay door & leads you to the patio. The inviting hearth room features wood burning FP. The spacious master suite offers master bath w/ 2 sinks, a separate jacuzzi tub & shower & a walk-in closet. The other 3 large BR, a loft, laundry area complete the 2nd fl. Large partially finished LL features 9 ft ceiling w/ a recreation area, media room, bonus room, FR & a full bath. Desirable quiet neighborhood.

7. 2023-02-18
   price $559,900
8. 2023-01-16
   price $569,900
9. 2022-10-27
   price $579,900
10. 2003-12-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,274 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,274 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,274
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concord

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #9260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 30,540
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,540
• Household income: $92,359
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.34%
• Current HPI: 211.4603
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-56.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $250,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-23 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-01 Listed $549,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-18 Price Changed $559,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-16 Price Changed $569,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-27 Price Changed $579,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,274 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.