5335 N Rocky Fork Dr · Columbia, MO 65202

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1975 0.36 ac lot $119/sqft · 16% below area Est $214k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity. Solid home with newer roof and hvac. Long term tenants. Great room for a few improvements and increased rents.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Newer hvac
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.96%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,897
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -20.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Copper Mountain Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,377 (-1%)	6mo	$225,000	$163	79
215 E Tully Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,335 (-4%)	9mo	$230,000	$172	75
154 E Tully Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,292 (-7%)	2mo	$235,000	$182	74
5304 Aspen Ridge Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (+2%)	2mo	$285,000	$202	74
460 E Cedar Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,391 (-0%)	1mo	$235,000	$169	73
235 E Murphy Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-5%)	6mo	$235,000	$178	72
576 E Clearview Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-5%)	5mo	$236,000	$178	66
547 E Clearview Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,336 (-4%)	10mo	$225,000	$168	66
5212 Silver Mill Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-2%)	8mo	$249,900	$184	64
5290 N Burning Bush Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (+4%)	1mo	$285,000	$197	63
184 E Tully Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-14%)	2mo	$230,000	$193	63
240 E Tully Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-14%)	7mo	$229,900	$193	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $623
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $52,344
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65202

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,403/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,330

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Copper Mountain Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,750	$1.22	13d	1	0.22mi
5205 Silver Mill Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,950	$1.08	21d	1	0.44mi
5113 Silver Mill Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,950	$1.08	43d	1	0.46mi
4919 Silver Mill Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,950	$1.08	43d	1	0.53mi
655 Country Squire Ct Unit 655 Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,350	$1.05	21d	1	1.03mi
5309-5311 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.12mi
1405 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	21d	1	1.12mi
5307 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.12mi
5305 Currituck Ln Unit 5305 Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	13d	1	1.12mi
5305 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.13mi
5301 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1374	$1,495	$1.09	43d	1	1.13mi
1403 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.14mi
1401-1403 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	21d	1	1.14mi
5211 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.14mi
1413 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	13d	1	1.15mi
1417 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.18mi
1419 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.18mi
1427 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	13d	1	1.20mi
1302 E Brown School Rd Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,625	$1.01	43d	1	1.21mi
1424 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	43d	1	1.21mi
214 Arctic Wolf Ct Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	43d	1	1.22mi
1432 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	43d	1	1.23mi
1507 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.23mi
1500 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	21d	1	1.23mi
1505 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,600	$1.14	13d	1	1.24mi
4014 Arctic Fox Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1663	$1,695	$1.02	43d	1	1.24mi
1311 Raleigh Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,625	$1.01	13d	1	1.24mi
4016 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.26mi
4013 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	43d	1	1.26mi
4014 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.27mi
1524 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	43d	1	1.29mi
4006 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.30mi
4001 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	43d	1	1.31mi
3927 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	43d	1	1.32mi
3922 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.35mi
1516 Citadel Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.36mi
3910 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.38mi
708 Promenade Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	43d	1	1.41mi
1601-1603 Bold Ruler Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	13d	1	1.43mi
1605 Bold Ruler Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,425	$1.25	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $165,000 Pending 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-03-11
    price $170,000 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Great starter home or investment property offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a great basement finish. Currently tenant occupied through mid July 2026

11. 2026-03-11
    price $170,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Great starter home or investment property offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a great basement finish. Currently tenant occupied through mid July 2026

12. 2025-11-17
    listed $180,000 Active 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. Solid home with newer roof and hvac. Long term tenants. Great room for a few improvements and increased rents.

13. 2025-11-17
    listed $180,000 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. Solid home with newer roof and hvac. Long term tenants. Great room for a few improvements and increased rents.

14. 1997-06-26
    soldstatus
15. 1997-04-08
    listed $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,403
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$370
• After-tax cash flow: $3,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 47,327
• Household income: $72,289
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1326.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.32%
• Current HPI: 205.5154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+139.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $170,000 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $170,000 CBORMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $180,000 CBORMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $180,000 CBORMLS
• 1997-06-26 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 1997-04-08 Listed $71,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,403 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.