31686 River Pines Dr #31686 · Killian, LA 70462

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 193 Days on market

Built 1978 $167/sqft · 7% below area Est $161k · 7% under $54/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING.NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

Key facts

• Exterior balcony
• Natural light
• $54 HOA

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• EXTERIOR BALCONY
• DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER
• PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (45.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.2% in Killian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#333 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,854 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,628
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -6.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $57,344
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $188,633
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70462

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $747/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $81,854

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-300	-5% $-343	+0% $-385	+5% $-428	+10% $-470
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-436	+0% $-385	+5% $-335	+10% $-285
Rate	-1.0pp $-310	-0.5pp $-347	base $-385	+0.5pp $-424	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-04-05
    price $149,900 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

16. 2026-04-05
    price $149,900 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

17. 2026-03-27
    price $159,896 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

18. 2026-03-27
    price $159,896 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

19. 2026-02-13
    price $159,897 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

20. 2026-02-13
    price $159,897 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

21. 2026-02-04
    price $159,898 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

22. 2026-02-04
    price $159,898 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

23. 2026-01-25
    price $159,899 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

24. 2026-01-25
    price $159,899 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

25. 2025-12-08
    listed $159,900 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

26. 2025-12-08
    listed $159,900 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    FRESH PAINT , LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT , 2 BEDROOMS , 1 BATHROOM , LARGE DEN , LOVELY KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTER TOPS , EXTERIOR BALCONY OVER LOOKING THE RIVER . ONLY MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS AND DINING. NEW APPLIANCES , NEW FIXTURES . THIS HAS DIRECT ACCESS TO THE WATER AND A PLACE TO PARK YOUR BOAT.

27. 2025-03-01
    historical
28. 2024-12-11
    listed $174,900 Active
29. 2024-12-11
    historical
30. 2024-11-21
    price $174,900
31. 2024-11-20
    price $174,900
32. 2024-07-27
    price $199,900
33. 2024-06-25
    listed $199,900 Active
34. 2024-06-25
    listed $214,900 Active
35. 2023-03-23
    soldstatus $210,000
36. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$747
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$7,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,724
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Killian

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #22333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,428

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 115.93%
• Current HPI: 389.85
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+108.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $149,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $159,896 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $159,896 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $159,897 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $159,897 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $159,898 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $159,898 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $159,899 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $159,899 GBRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $159,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $159,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-03-01 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $174,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-12-11 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $174,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $174,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $199,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-06-25 Listed $214,900 GBRMLS
• 2024-06-25 Listed $199,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $747 · -30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.