Mystique Plan · Estero, FL 33928

$498,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,889 sqft · SingleFamily · 952 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 952 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18405 Parksville Dr, Estero FL 33928; Last updated May 20, 2026
• Financial info: List price $498,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan; Single-story (plan information)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,889 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Mystique; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $498,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $513,808.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $490k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $439k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,903/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 952 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,111 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 952 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.69%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $513,808
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18297 Ridgeline Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (-11%)	9mo	$445,000	$265	51
20285 Napa Loop	0.26mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,133 (+13%)	18mo	$580,000	$272	43
18647 Ives Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,032 (+8%)	12mo	$664,900	$327	42
20154 Hartford Blvd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,056 (+9%)	23mo	$535,260	$260	41
20530 Pebble Glen Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,099 (+11%)	12mo	$579,000	$276	41
20604 Pebble Glen Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-12%)	19mo	$439,735	$266	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-77,010
• Equity at exit: $76,610

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-95,835
• Equity at exit: $44,425

Cash invested: $143,866 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,694
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$642 /mo · $7,707/yr
• Insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,030
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,495

Max offer price $513,808

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $678	-5% $500	+0% $323	+5% $145	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $129	+0% $323	+5% $516	+10% $710
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $453	base $323	+0.5pp $189	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,452
• Closing costs: $15,414
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	24d	1	0.13mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	24d	1	0.23mi
20179 Millrun Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2493	$4,300	$1.72	24d	1	0.25mi
18334 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$4,700	$1.93	22d	1	0.29mi
18315 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$4,995	$2.04	4d	1	0.30mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	3d	1	0.30mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	16d	1	0.34mi
18278 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$7,500	$3.08	24d	1	0.35mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	4d	1	0.37mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2621	$3,495	$1.33	16d	1	0.37mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	24d	1	0.39mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	24d	1	0.41mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	24d	1	0.43mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	24d	1	0.43mi
20040 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	4.0	2534	$3,800	$1.50	24d	1	0.43mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	24d	1	0.46mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	15d	1	0.46mi
19100 Hanley Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$4,000	$1.64	24d	1	0.60mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.84mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	22d	1	1.03mi
19565 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	24d	1	1.24mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$5,995	$2.98	24d	1	1.29mi
19527 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $498,990 Active 952 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $498,990 Active 951 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $498,990 Active 950 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $498,990 Active 948 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $498,990 Active 944 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $498,990 Active 942 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $498,990 Active 936 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $498,990 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,781
• − Property taxes: −$7,707
• − Insurance: −$2,569
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,707
• − Management: −$4,707
• − Depreciation: −$14,947
• Taxable loss: −$4,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,100
• After-tax cash flow: $4,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B