906 Barham Ave N · Johnston City, IL 62951

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 1940 0.27 ac lot $55/sqft · 40% above area Est $75k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large, sloping to the front

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#670 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston City CUSD 1 (town): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #556 of 620 in IL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.49%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,910
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 40.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 E 15th St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+1%)	14mo	$175,000	$91	66
409 W 13th St	0.54mi	3/3.0	1,701 (-10%)	3mo	$135,000	$79	51
201 W 9th St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,179 (+15%)	24mo	$79,000	$36	35
1401 Trout Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (-15%)	24mo	$88,000	$54	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $905
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $23,846
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62951

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,093/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $868

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $115,000 Active 27-char remark

    Show marketing remark (27 chars)

    Large, sloping to the front

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$645/yr (+$54/mo · 59.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,093
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $1,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$428
• After-tax cash flow: $2,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston City CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1720550
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,813
• Composite: 10.81/100
• National rank: #9765
• State rank: #556 of 620 in IL

Livability — Johnston City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #670
• US rank: #13707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnston City, IL
• City population: 5,381
• Population (ZIP): 5,381

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% English 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.65%
• Current HPI: 111.1728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $115,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,093 · -53.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.