7743 Water Park Ln · Houston, TX 77086

$207,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1972 6,442 sqft lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $213k · at est. $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW ROOF, UPDATED BATHROOMS,GRANITE COUNTERS AND INTERIOR WATER SUPPLY LINES REPLACED provide added peace of mind. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey for added convenience. Functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and a great opportunity for easy cosmetic updates to make it your own. Low-maintenance brick exterior and spacious fenced backyard with no rear neighbors offer privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED.

Key facts

• Masonry fireplace
• 6,442 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE STORY BRICK HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MASONRY FIREPLACE
• DURABLE FULL BRICK VENEER
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-773/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $207k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,481
• List price: $207,000
• Delta: -3.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7810 Willow Mint Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,209 (-6%)	1mo	$224,000	$185	80
9710 Wind Flower Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,386 (+8%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	77
7711 Water Park Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,312 (+2%)	14mo	$219,000	$167	76
7807 Willow Mint Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,322 (+3%)	8mo	$229,000	$173	75
9627 Crooked Wood Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (+2%)	11mo	$218,900	$167	74
9711 Shady Tree Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,209 (-6%)	11mo	$209,990	$174	71
7810 Bunker Wood Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (+2%)	11mo	$219,500	$168	70
9402 Golden Wood Lane Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (+2%)	13mo	$235,000	$179	69
9607 Rumbling Wood Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,177 (-8%)	3mo	$245,000	$208	66
7718 Woodnettle Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+14%)	2mo	$239,000	$163	65
9722 Desert Flower Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,460 (+14%)	13mo	$235,000	$161	53
9411 Sutter Park Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,373 (+7%)	8mo	$240,000	$175	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.6% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $483
• Equity at exit: $77,192

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $20,829
• Equity at exit: $107,831

Cash invested: $57,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77086

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,209/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $195,622

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,750
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9526 Golden Wood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	0.06mi
7750 Water Park Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	44d	1	0.06mi
12752 N Houston Rosslyn Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,963	$2.13	2d	13	0.75mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,733	$1.30	5d	1	1.09mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,733	$1.30	1d	1	1.09mi
12626 Atwood Grove Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	44d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $207,000 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $207,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $207,000 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $207,000 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $207,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $207,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $207,000 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $207,000 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $207,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $207,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $207,000 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $207,000 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $207,000 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-03-11
    price $207,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    NEW ROOF, UPDATED BATHROOMS,GRANITE COUNTERS AND INTERIOR WATER SUPPLY LINES REPLACED provide added peace of mind. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey for added convenience. Functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and a great opportunity for easy cosmetic updates to make it your own. Low-maintenance brick exterior and spacious fenced backyard with no rear neighbors offer privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED.

15. 2026-02-21
    status Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    NEW ROOF, UPDATED BATHROOMS,GRANITE COUNTERS AND INTERIOR WATER SUPPLY LINES REPLACED provide added peace of mind. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey for added convenience. Functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and a great opportunity for easy cosmetic updates to make it your own. Low-maintenance brick exterior and spacious fenced backyard with no rear neighbors offer privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED.

16. 2026-02-20
    status Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    NEW ROOF, UPDATED BATHROOMS,GRANITE COUNTERS AND INTERIOR WATER SUPPLY LINES REPLACED provide added peace of mind. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey for added convenience. Functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and a great opportunity for easy cosmetic updates to make it your own. Low-maintenance brick exterior and spacious fenced backyard with no rear neighbors offer privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED.

17. 2026-02-20
    historical 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    NEW ROOF, UPDATED BATHROOMS,GRANITE COUNTERS AND INTERIOR WATER SUPPLY LINES REPLACED provide added peace of mind. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey for added convenience. Functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and a great opportunity for easy cosmetic updates to make it your own. Low-maintenance brick exterior and spacious fenced backyard with no rear neighbors offer privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED.

18. 2026-02-15
    status Pending 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    NEW ROOF, UPDATED BATHROOMS,GRANITE COUNTERS AND INTERIOR WATER SUPPLY LINES REPLACED provide added peace of mind. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey for added convenience. Functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and a great opportunity for easy cosmetic updates to make it your own. Low-maintenance brick exterior and spacious fenced backyard with no rear neighbors offer privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED.

19. 2025-12-01
    listed $215,000 Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    NEW ROOF, UPDATED BATHROOMS,GRANITE COUNTERS AND INTERIOR WATER SUPPLY LINES REPLACED provide added peace of mind. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey for added convenience. Functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and a great opportunity for easy cosmetic updates to make it your own. Low-maintenance brick exterior and spacious fenced backyard with no rear neighbors offer privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED.

20. 2009-05-12
    soldstatus 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    HUD HOME * CASE# 493-658891* SELLING AS IS * SQ-FT INFORMATION IS FROM THE FHA APPRAISAL AND IS DEEMED RELIABLE, BUT NOT GUARANTEED* 1 STORY 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH W/BREAKFAST AREA AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

21. 2009-03-18
    historical 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    HUD HOME * CASE# 493-658891* SELLING AS IS * SQ-FT INFORMATION IS FROM THE FHA APPRAISAL AND IS DEEMED RELIABLE, BUT NOT GUARANTEED* 1 STORY 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH W/BREAKFAST AREA AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

22. 2009-02-24
    listed $55,000 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    HUD HOME * CASE# 493-658891* SELLING AS IS * SQ-FT INFORMATION IS FROM THE FHA APPRAISAL AND IS DEEMED RELIABLE, BUT NOT GUARANTEED* 1 STORY 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH W/BREAKFAST AREA AND 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

23. 2000-02-28
    soldstatus
24. 2000-02-01
    soldstatus $63,654

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$4,209
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$4,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,016
• After-tax cash flow: $243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,653
• Household income: $58,200
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1323.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 26% Black 19% Asian 9% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 54% Vietnamese 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Current HPI: 281.0065
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.19%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+225.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $207,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2009-05-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-03-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-02-24 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2000-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,654 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,209 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.