64111 Nikolaevsk Rd · Nikolaevsk, AK 99556

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 329 Days on market

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot $80/sqft · 44% below area Est $143k · 44% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Fixer Upper Home is located on 1 Acre with a Spacious Lawn. It is on public water and has a 10-year-old septic system. Lots of Room behind the house for a New Building Location. From the ground level there are Stunning Mountain Views and from a second floor you would see Cook Inlet. The home is Cozy with lots of Wood Details. There is an Outdoor Sauna. Home is being sold As Is! The location is near the village of Nikolaevsk on borough-maintained roads, close to trails and hunting. Live in the house while building a new home. There is a road to access the back part of the lot and a great building location via Nikolaevsk Court. Shown by appointment only. Home would qualify for a recreational loan.

Key facts

• Near the village
• Outdoor sauna
• One acre

Tags

• ONE ACRE
• PUBLIC WATER
• 10 YEAR OLD SEPTIC SYSTEM
• STUNNING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OUTDOOR SAUNA
• NEAR THE VILLAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#164 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.29%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,438
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -44.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65105 Nikolaevsk Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	992 (-1%)	9mo	$59,000	$59	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $43,390
• Equity at exit: $33,595

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $106,820
• Equity at exit: $49,998

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99556

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $613

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 329 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 328 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 327 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 326 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 325 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 322 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 319 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 318 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 317 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 316 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 313 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 312 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 311 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 310 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 309 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $85,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This Fixer Upper Home is located on 1 Acre with a Spacious Lawn. It is on public water and has a 10-year-old septic system. Lots of Room behind the house for a New Building Location. From the ground level there are Stunning Mountain Views and from a second floor you would see Cook Inlet. The home is Cozy with lots of Wood Details. There is an Outdoor Sauna. Home is being sold As Is! The location is near the village of Nikolaevsk on borough-maintained roads, close to trails and hunting. Live in the house while building a new home. There is a road to access the back part of the lot and a great building location via Nikolaevsk Court. Shown by appointment only. Home would qualify for a recreational loan.

18. 2026-04-10
    status Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This Fixer Upper Home is located on 1 Acre with a Spacious Lawn. It is on public water and has a 10-year-old septic system. Lots of Room behind the house for a New Building Location. From the ground level there are Stunning Mountain Views and from a second floor you would see Cook Inlet. The home is Cozy with lots of Wood Details. There is an Outdoor Sauna. Home is being sold As Is! The location is near the village of Nikolaevsk on borough-maintained roads, close to trails and hunting. Live in the house while building a new home. There is a road to access the back part of the lot and a great building location via Nikolaevsk Court. Shown by appointment only. Home would qualify for a recreational loan.

19. 2026-04-10
    price $89,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This Fixer Upper Home is located on 1 Acre with a Spacious Lawn. It is on public water and has a 10-year-old septic system. Lots of Room behind the house for a New Building Location. From the ground level there are Stunning Mountain Views and from a second floor you would see Cook Inlet. The home is Cozy with lots of Wood Details. There is an Outdoor Sauna. Home is being sold As Is! The location is near the village of Nikolaevsk on borough-maintained roads, close to trails and hunting. Live in the house while building a new home. There is a road to access the back part of the lot and a great building location via Nikolaevsk Court. Shown by appointment only. Home would qualify for a recreational loan.

20. 2026-01-05
    price $95,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This Fixer Upper Home is located on 1 Acre with a Spacious Lawn. It is on public water and has a 10-year-old septic system. Lots of Room behind the house for a New Building Location. From the ground level there are Stunning Mountain Views and from a second floor you would see Cook Inlet. The home is Cozy with lots of Wood Details. There is an Outdoor Sauna. Home is being sold As Is! The location is near the village of Nikolaevsk on borough-maintained roads, close to trails and hunting. Live in the house while building a new home. There is a road to access the back part of the lot and a great building location via Nikolaevsk Court. Shown by appointment only. Home would qualify for a recreational loan.

21. 2025-08-26
    price $99,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This Fixer Upper Home is located on 1 Acre with a Spacious Lawn. It is on public water and has a 10-year-old septic system. Lots of Room behind the house for a New Building Location. From the ground level there are Stunning Mountain Views and from a second floor you would see Cook Inlet. The home is Cozy with lots of Wood Details. There is an Outdoor Sauna. Home is being sold As Is! The location is near the village of Nikolaevsk on borough-maintained roads, close to trails and hunting. Live in the house while building a new home. There is a road to access the back part of the lot and a great building location via Nikolaevsk Court. Shown by appointment only. Home would qualify for a recreational loan.

22. 2025-07-16
    listed $110,000 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This Fixer Upper Home is located on 1 Acre with a Spacious Lawn. It is on public water and has a 10-year-old septic system. Lots of Room behind the house for a New Building Location. From the ground level there are Stunning Mountain Views and from a second floor you would see Cook Inlet. The home is Cozy with lots of Wood Details. There is an Outdoor Sauna. Home is being sold As Is! The location is near the village of Nikolaevsk on borough-maintained roads, close to trails and hunting. Live in the house while building a new home. There is a road to access the back part of the lot and a great building location via Nikolaevsk Court. Shown by appointment only. Home would qualify for a recreational loan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $375 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 77.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,394
• After-tax cash flow: $5,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikolaevsk

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #24043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikolaevsk, AK
• City population: 2,858
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Current HPI: 169.1953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $85,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $89,000 AKMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $95,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $99,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $110,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.