5433 Willow Ave · Raytown, MO 64133

$164,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1951 0.45 ac lot $155/sqft · 13% below area Est $190k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER IS MOTIVATED Bring an acceptable offer by 04-30-2026 and Seller is offering closing cost or a rate buydown. Buyer's choice. 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering 1,056 sq ft of potential! This property is ready for new vision and updates and would make a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. Functional layout, solid footprint, and plenty of room to make it your own. Bring your ideas and transform this home into something special! There is a tenant in place whose lease expires 10-31-2026

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.0% in Raytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#281 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Raytown C-2 (suburban): math 12% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #302 of 324 in MO (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $144,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,586
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -13.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5409 Hardy Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-2%)	6mo	$169,000	$163	86
5317 Ralston Ave	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+4%)	1mo	$175,000	$159	80
5521 Ash Ave	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,010 (-4%)	1mo	$155,000	$153	78
11012 E 57th Ter	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	11mo	$170,000	$161	70
5300 Hardy Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,035 (-2%)	6mo	$149,000	$144	70
4740 Cedar Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,002 (-5%)	7mo	$194,000	$194	68
5801 Blue Ridge Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,083 (+3%)	9mo	$219,900	$203	66
10608 E 59th St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,124 (+6%)	7mo	$170,000	$151	62
4915 Appleton Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,086 (+3%)	8mo	$179,000	$165	57
5123 Overton Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,025 (-3%)	10mo	$172,000	$168	55
5220 Overton Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,195 (+13%)	1mo	$195,000	$163	45
5005 Hawthorne Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	904 (-14%)	11mo	$209,950	$232	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,038
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,827
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64133

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,460/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $172	+0% $126	+5% $79	+10% $33
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $67	+0% $126	+5% $185	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $167	base $126	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5517 Willow Ave Raytown, MO	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,850	$1.31	2d	1	0.08mi
10621 E 56th St Raytown, MO	2.0	1.0	768	$1,340	$1.74	4d	1	0.18mi
10005 E 53rd St Raytown, MO	3.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	3d	1	0.36mi
10005 E 53rd St Raytown, MO	3.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	4d	1	0.36mi
11121 E 56th Ter Raytown, MO	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,295	$1.16	15d	1	0.48mi
4934 Appleton Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	17d	1	0.58mi
5035 Overton Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,795	$1.36	44d	1	0.67mi
5943 Raytown Rd Unit F Raytown, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	44d	1	0.68mi
5014 Crisp Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	44d	1	0.72mi
10309 E 61st St Raytown, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	695	$1,100	$1.58	2d	2	0.80mi
4808 Appleton Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,395	$1.51	15d	1	0.82mi
4837 Overton Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,611	$1.20	22d	1	0.89mi
9805 E 61st St Raytown, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	758	$924	$1.22	3d	39	0.91mi
10318 E 63rd St Raytown, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	785	$1,200	$1.53	24d	2	0.92mi
5312 Hunter St Raytown, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	3d	1	1.16mi
5312 Hunter St Raytown, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	4d	1	1.16mi
8855 E 59th St Raytown, MO	3.0	1.5	864	$1,396	$1.62	44d	1	1.30mi
6541 Raytown Rd Raytown, MO	2.0	1.0	705	$975	$1.38	2d	1	1.37mi
10415 E 43rd St Kansas City, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	784	$1,084	$1.38	2d	12	1.38mi
9706 E 65th Ter Raytown, MO	3.0	1.0	995	$1,295	$1.30	44d	1	1.38mi
6017 Farley Ave Raytown, MO	2.0	2.5	1152	$1,495	$1.30	44d	1	1.40mi
8648 E 52nd Ter Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1224	$1,395	$1.14	24d	1	1.42mi
5106 S Grand Ave Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	1218	$1,586	$1.30	8d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $164,000 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    SELLER IS MOTIVATED Bring an acceptable offer by 04-30-2026 and Seller is offering closing cost or a rate buydown. Buyer's choice. 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering 1,056 sq ft of potential! This property is ready for new vision and updates and would make a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. Functional layout, solid footprint, and plenty of room to make it your own. Bring your ideas and transform this home into something special! There is a tenant in place whose lease expires 10-31-2026

16. 2026-05-01
    price $167,000 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    SELLER IS MOTIVATED Bring an acceptable offer by 04-30-2026 and Seller is offering closing cost or a rate buydown. Buyer's choice. 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering 1,056 sq ft of potential! This property is ready for new vision and updates and would make a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. Functional layout, solid footprint, and plenty of room to make it your own. Bring your ideas and transform this home into something special! There is a tenant in place whose lease expires 10-31-2026

17. 2026-02-10
    listed $173,000 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    SELLER IS MOTIVATED Bring an acceptable offer by 04-30-2026 and Seller is offering closing cost or a rate buydown. Buyer's choice. 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering 1,056 sq ft of potential! This property is ready for new vision and updates and would make a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. Functional layout, solid footprint, and plenty of room to make it your own. Bring your ideas and transform this home into something special! There is a tenant in place whose lease expires 10-31-2026

18. 2024-10-26
    historical $1,195
19. 2024-09-24
    listed $1,195
20. 2018-02-15
    soldstatus
21. 2018-02-14
    soldstatus Sold 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice Ranch style home on large lot in Raytown's Country Club Addition. Has been a rental with a few minor repairs scheduled to be completed over the next few weeks now that tenants are out, but overall in great condition!

22. 2017-12-17
    status Pending 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice Ranch style home on large lot in Raytown's Country Club Addition. Has been a rental with a few minor repairs scheduled to be completed over the next few weeks now that tenants are out, but overall in great condition!

23. 2017-12-10
    listed $81,900 Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice Ranch style home on large lot in Raytown's Country Club Addition. Has been a rental with a few minor repairs scheduled to be completed over the next few weeks now that tenants are out, but overall in great condition!

24. 2014-03-10
    historical
25. 2013-09-17
    listed $59,900
26. 2012-11-01
    listed $69,900
27. 2010-10-07
    soldstatus
28. 2010-08-06
    listed $39,000
29. 2001-08-29
    soldstatus
30. 1995-12-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$131/yr (+$11/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$1,460
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$1,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$296
• After-tax cash flow: $1,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Raytown C-2
• NCES district ID: 2926070
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,215
• Composite: 17.59/100
• National rank: #9039
• State rank: #302 of 324 in MO

Livability — Raytown

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #13079

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raytown, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 60,054
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 36,249
• Household income: $67,750
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1173.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.40%
• Current HPI: 263.6915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.34%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+320.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $164,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $167,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $173,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-26 Rental Removed $1,195 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-24 Listed for Rent $1,195 SHOWMOJO
• 2018-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-14 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-17 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-10 Listed $81,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-10 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-17 Listed $59,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-01 Listed $69,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-07 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-06 Listed $39,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,460 · -12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.