8893 E Sanders Rd · Winn, MI
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $784 – $1,456
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 97°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +18.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +5.6/10.0
- 1% rule +4.8/10.0
- Schools +3.2/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$95,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Welcome To 8893 E Sanders Rd - This Well-Maintained Home Sits On Almost 2 Acres And Offers Peaceful Country Living With Plenty Of Space. The Property Features A 24x24 Pole Barn With Cement Flooring, Perfect For Storage Or A Workshop. The Home Has Been Well Cared For And Includes A Ramp For Easy Handicap Access, Adding Extra Convenience And Accessibility.
Key facts
- Cement flooring
- 24x24 pole barn
- 1.82 acre lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($972/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (1.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Vestaburg Community Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #459 of 760 in MI (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 273 units permitted in Montcalm County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Montcalm County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 10 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $65k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.98% ✗
- Cap rate
- 7.32%
- Cash-on-cash
- 3.66%
- DSCR
- 1.16
- GRM
- 8.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $166,025
- List price
- $95,000
- Delta
- -42.78%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 1 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8937 E Sanders Rd | 0.05mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 910 (-2%) | 2mo | $151,900 | $167 | 88 |
| 8937 E Sanders Rd | 0.21mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 910 (-2%) | 2mo | $151,900 | $167 | 81 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -10.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.62×
- Total profit
- $-10,219
- Equity at exit
- $14,165
- IRR
- -1.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.92×
- Total profit
- $-2,195
- Equity at exit
- $8,214
Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Michigan
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 48891
- Home prices YoY
- -25.1%
- Active inventory
- 12
- Price-to-rent
- 8.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $934 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$498
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
- Insurance
- −$40
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$196
- Net cashflow
- $81
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $147 | -5% $114 | +0% $81 | +5% $48 | +10% $15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $7 | -5% $44 | +0% $81 | +5% $118 | +10% $155 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $129 | -0.5pp $105 | base $81 | +0.5pp $56 | +1.0pp $31 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $23,750
- Closing costs
- $2,850
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 30 events
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2026-06-02status $95,000 Pending 53 DOM
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2026-06-01days on market $95,000 Active 53 DOM
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2026-05-31days on market $95,000 Active 52 DOM
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2026-05-31days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
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2026-04-09$99,000 Active 356-char remark
Show marketing remark (356 chars)
Welcome To 8893 E Sanders Rd - This Well-Maintained Home Sits On Almost 2 Acres And Offers Peaceful Country Living With Plenty Of Space. The Property Features A 24x24 Pole Barn With Cement Flooring, Perfect For Storage Or A Workshop. The Home Has Been Well Cared For And Includes A Ramp For Easy Handicap Access, Adding Extra Convenience And Accessibility.
-
2026-04-09$99,000 Active 356-char remark
Show marketing remark (356 chars)
Welcome To 8893 E Sanders Rd - This Well-Maintained Home Sits On Almost 2 Acres And Offers Peaceful Country Living With Plenty Of Space. The Property Features A 24x24 Pole Barn With Cement Flooring, Perfect For Storage Or A Workshop. The Home Has Been Well Cared For And Includes A Ramp For Easy Handicap Access, Adding Extra Convenience And Accessibility.
-
2026-04-09$99,000 Active
Show marketing remark (356 chars)
Welcome To 8893 E Sanders Rd - This Well-Maintained Home Sits On Almost 2 Acres And Offers Peaceful Country Living With Plenty Of Space. The Property Features A 24x24 Pole Barn With Cement Flooring, Perfect For Storage Or A Workshop. The Home Has Been Well Cared For And Includes A Ramp For Easy Handicap Access, Adding Extra Convenience And Accessibility.
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2025-12-19historical
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2025-12-19historical
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2025-10-14price $99,000
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2025-10-14price $99,000
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2025-10-14price $99,000
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2025-08-23$105,000 Active
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2025-08-22$105,000 Active
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2024-01-03soldstatus $65,000
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2023-12-20soldstatus $65,000 Sold
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2023-12-20soldstatus $65,000 Sold
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2023-12-20soldstatus $65,000 Closed
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2023-12-20soldstatus $65,000 Closed
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2023-12-20soldstatus $65,000 Sold
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2023-12-12status Pending
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2023-12-12status Pending
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2023-12-11status Pending
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2023-12-11status Pending
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2023-12-11status Pending
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2023-12-11$75,000 Active
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2023-12-11$75,000 Active
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2023-12-11$75,000 Active
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2023-12-11$75,000 Active
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2023-12-11$75,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,203
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,321
- − Property taxes
- −$1,425
- − Insurance
- −$475
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$896
- − Management
- −$896
- − Depreciation
- −$2,764
- Taxable loss
- −$574
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$138
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,110/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Vestaburg Community Schools
- NCES district ID
- 2634920
- Math proficiency
- 33% ▲ 9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 37% ▲ 7.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,346
- Composite
- 32.34/100
- National rank
- #10890
- State rank
- #459 of 760 in MI
Livability — Winn
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- City population
- 218
- Population (ZIP)
- 2,923
Population outlook (Montcalm County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 61,011 people
- By 2030
- 59,467 · -2.5%
- By 2040
- 55,427 · -9.2%
- By 2050
- 50,517 · -17.2%
- By 2075
- 38,731 · -36.5%
- By 2100
- 26,770 · -56.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (95%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 98% English-only · Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Montcalm
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+39.0) · D 29.8% · R 68.7% · Other 1.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -38.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: -39.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+0.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -69.90%
- Current HPI
- 208.6966
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.37%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Parts | 3 | $48B |
|
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| Automotive | 2 | $372B |
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| Chemicals | 1 | $45B |
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| Automotive Retail | 1 | $29B |
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| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $23B |
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| Automotive Technology | 1 | $20B |
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Price history
+32.0% since first listed26 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-09 Listed $99,000 REALCOMP
- 2026-04-09 Listed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2026-04-09 Listed $99,000 SW Michigan MLS
- 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
- 2025-10-14 Price Changed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2025-10-14 Price Changed $99,000 REALCOMP
- 2025-10-14 Price Changed $99,000 SW Michigan MLS
- 2025-08-23 Listed $105,000 REALCOMP
- 2025-08-22 Listed $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2024-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
- 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $65,000 SW Michigan MLS
- 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $65,000 REALCOMP
- 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $65,000 REALCOMP
- 2023-12-12 Pending — REALCOMP
- 2023-12-12 Pending — REALCOMP
- 2023-12-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2023-12-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2023-12-11 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
- 2023-12-11 Listed $75,000 SW Michigan MLS
- 2023-12-11 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2023-12-11 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2023-12-11 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
- 2023-12-11 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…