422 Francis St · Dalton, NE 69131

$40,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1910 6,750 sqft lot $26/sqft · 89% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 6,750 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#244 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Leyton Public Schools (rural): math 60% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #82 of 245 in NE (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Cheyenne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Cheyenne County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $40k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.22%
• DSCR: 4.48
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $594,238
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -93.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $52,649
• Equity at exit: $19,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.77×
• Total profit: $120,679
• Equity at exit: $31,045

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69131

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $365/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $325

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-01
   price $40,000
2. 2026-01-31
   price $42,500
3. 2026-01-01
   listed $45,000 Active
4. 2021-08-19
   soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $365 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$327/yr (+$27/mo · 89.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$365
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,623
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,069
• After-tax cash flow: $6,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leyton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100072
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,294
• Composite: 50.75/100
• National rank: #3916
• State rank: #82 of 245 in NE

Livability — Dalton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #8732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dalton, NE
• Population (ZIP): 805

Population outlook (Cheyenne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,658 people
• By 2030: 10,916 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 11,367 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 11,766 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 12,967 · +21.7%
• By 2100: 12,982 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Scottish 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheyenne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.1) · D 17.4% · R 81.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -64.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.1 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+63.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.62%
• Current HPI: 172.738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+90.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $40,000 WNBOR
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $42,500 WNBOR
• 2026-01-01 Listed $45,000 WNBOR
• 2021-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $365 · +39.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.