10933 Julius St Unit D · Oakland, CA 94605

$278,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Condo public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1985 $273/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into a friendly, community-minded pocket of the Oakland/San Leandro border, this charming 2-bed, 1.5-bath end-unit townhome in a 4-unit complex lives like a single-family home, complete with a private backyard. The inviting living area features new floors and a cozy fireplace, flowing into an eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Thoughtful updates throughout make the home feel fresh and easy to live in, with in-unit laundry hookups for everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms with new carpet separated by a full bathroom, plus an attic space ideal for storage or bonus square footage. Both bathrooms have windows for fresh air. Out back, a storage shed accessible through the kitchen adds even more practical space. With no HOA fee, it’s a great option for an owner-occupant or investor. Just minutes from Top Hatters, Koolfi Creamery, AC Transit, the 580 freeway, and nearby grocery shops, the location and value can’t be beat.

Key facts

• New floors
• Attic space
• Private backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• NEW FLOORS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• ATTIC SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $121k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $278k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $252,980 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $624,604
• List price: $278,000
• Delta: -55.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-37,626
• Equity at exit: $41,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-39,263
• Equity at exit: $24,036

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Oakland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+62

Rent Adjustment Program + Just Cause.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94605

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,716/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $278,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10815 Julius St Unit 2 Oakland, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	44d	1	0.06mi
2650 109th Ave Unit 1 Oakland, CA	3.0	2.0	780	$3,825	$4.90	3d	1	0.08mi
11818 Foothill Way Unit 3 Oakland, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	44d	1	0.60mi
9834 Lawlor St Oakland, CA	2.0	1.0	948	$3,500	$3.69	24d	1	0.71mi
9887 MacArthur Blvd Unit E Oakland, CA	3.0	3.0	1296	$3,595	$2.77	44d	1	0.71mi
9714 MacArthur Blvd Unit 9714 Oakland, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	44d	1	0.87mi
97 Durant Ave San Leandro, CA	3.0	2.0	1488	$3,400	$2.28	5d	1	0.93mi
997 Karol Way San Leandro, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$3,095	$2.48	44d	1	0.95mi
11764 Cranford Way Unit 11768 Oakland, CA	2.0	2.5	1365	$3,850	$2.82	44d	1	1.00mi
1340 San Jose St San Leandro, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,300	$2.75	44d	1	1.01mi
1463 Tucker St Oakland, CA	2.0	2.0	885	$2,600	$2.94	24d	1	1.01mi
566 Estudillo Ave San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,495	$2.77	12d	1	1.01mi
560 Estudillo Ave San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,495	$2.77	4d	1	1.02mi
235 Haas Ave San Leandro, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$2,685	$3.78	2d	8	1.03mi
529 Callan Ave Unit 1 San Leandro, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,945	$2.78	22d	1	1.03mi
959 Joaquin Ave Unit T955E San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$2,450	$2.94	18d	1	1.04mi
527 Callan Ave Unit 1 San Leandro, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,945	$2.78	22d	1	1.04mi
150 Haas Ave San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$2,400	$2.58	5d	1	1.04mi
179 Haas Ave Apt 11 San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,575	$3.22	44d	1	1.04mi
1428 105th Ave Oakland, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$1,698	$2.50	22d	1	1.05mi
424 Callan Ave San Leandro, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,723	$2.87	20d	6	1.05mi
170 Stoakes Ave Unit 9 San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	15d	1	1.08mi
9641 Birch St Apt 3 Oakland, CA	3.0	2.0	780	$2,490	$3.19	24d	1	1.10mi
9903 Walnut St Unit 9903 Oakland, CA	2.0	1.0	982	$2,199	$2.24	22d	1	1.15mi
2121 94th Ave Oakland, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,695	$2.42	44d	1	1.15mi
184 Callan Ave San Leandro, CA	2.0	2.0	1247	$2,995	$2.40	2d	1	1.16mi
100 Callan Ave San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	687	$3,011	$4.38	2d	6	1.19mi
1600 Grand Ave San Leandro, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$2,695	$2.99	44d	1	1.19mi
9046 E St Unit Hillside St unit Oakland, CA	1.0	1.0	850	$2,300	$2.71	5d	1	1.19mi
9046 Hillside St Oakland, CA	1.0	1.0	850	$2,300	$2.71	3d	1	1.19mi
9220 Bancroft Ave Unit B Oakland, CA	3.0	1.0	960	$3,600	$3.75	44d	1	1.20mi
475 Juana Ave Unit 06 San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$2,395	$2.99	44d	1	1.22mi
1774 Bancroft Ave San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	815	$3,000	$3.68	5d	1	1.31mi
1255 Hays St Unit 17 San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,195	$2.31	44d	1	1.32mi
1255 Hays St Unit 8 San Leandro, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,295	$2.19	24d	1	1.32mi
1206 105th Ave Oakland, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	44d	1	1.33mi
2339 88th Ave Unit 2339 Oakland, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,595	$2.28	44d	1	1.38mi
8653 Thermal St Oakland, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$2,200	$2.75	44d	1	1.38mi
2341 88th Ave Unit 2341 Oakland, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,595	$2.28	44d	1	1.38mi
9317 Walnut St Oakland, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,500	$2.63	44d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $278,000 Pending 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $278,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $278,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $278,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-04-27
    status Active 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Tucked into a friendly, community-minded pocket of the Oakland/San Leandro border, this charming 2-bed, 1.5-bath end-unit townhome in a 4-unit complex lives like a single-family home, complete with a private backyard. The inviting living area features new floors and a cozy fireplace, flowing into an eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Thoughtful updates throughout make the home feel fresh and easy to live in, with in-unit laundry hookups for everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms with new carpet separated by a full bathroom, plus an attic space ideal for storage or bonus square footage. Both bathrooms have windows for fresh air. Out back, a storage shed accessible through the kitchen adds even more practical space. With no HOA fee, it’s a great option for an owner-occupant or investor. Just minutes from Top Hatters, Koolfi Creamery, AC Transit, the 580 freeway, and nearby grocery shops, the location and value can’t be beat.

14. 2026-04-27
    price $299,000 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Tucked into a friendly, community-minded pocket of the Oakland/San Leandro border, this charming 2-bed, 1.5-bath end-unit townhome in a 4-unit complex lives like a single-family home, complete with a private backyard. The inviting living area features new floors and a cozy fireplace, flowing into an eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Thoughtful updates throughout make the home feel fresh and easy to live in, with in-unit laundry hookups for everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms with new carpet separated by a full bathroom, plus an attic space ideal for storage or bonus square footage. Both bathrooms have windows for fresh air. Out back, a storage shed accessible through the kitchen adds even more practical space. With no HOA fee, it’s a great option for an owner-occupant or investor. Just minutes from Top Hatters, Koolfi Creamery, AC Transit, the 580 freeway, and nearby grocery shops, the location and value can’t be beat.

15. 2026-04-23
    status Pending 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Tucked into a friendly, community-minded pocket of the Oakland/San Leandro border, this charming 2-bed, 1.5-bath end-unit townhome in a 4-unit complex lives like a single-family home, complete with a private backyard. The inviting living area features new floors and a cozy fireplace, flowing into an eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Thoughtful updates throughout make the home feel fresh and easy to live in, with in-unit laundry hookups for everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms with new carpet separated by a full bathroom, plus an attic space ideal for storage or bonus square footage. Both bathrooms have windows for fresh air. Out back, a storage shed accessible through the kitchen adds even more practical space. With no HOA fee, it’s a great option for an owner-occupant or investor. Just minutes from Top Hatters, Koolfi Creamery, AC Transit, the 580 freeway, and nearby grocery shops, the location and value can’t be beat.

16. 2026-03-26
    price $348,000 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Tucked into a friendly, community-minded pocket of the Oakland/San Leandro border, this charming 2-bed, 1.5-bath end-unit townhome in a 4-unit complex lives like a single-family home, complete with a private backyard. The inviting living area features new floors and a cozy fireplace, flowing into an eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Thoughtful updates throughout make the home feel fresh and easy to live in, with in-unit laundry hookups for everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms with new carpet separated by a full bathroom, plus an attic space ideal for storage or bonus square footage. Both bathrooms have windows for fresh air. Out back, a storage shed accessible through the kitchen adds even more practical space. With no HOA fee, it’s a great option for an owner-occupant or investor. Just minutes from Top Hatters, Koolfi Creamery, AC Transit, the 580 freeway, and nearby grocery shops, the location and value can’t be beat.

17. 2026-03-15
    price $378,000 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Tucked into a friendly, community-minded pocket of the Oakland/San Leandro border, this charming 2-bed, 1.5-bath end-unit townhome in a 4-unit complex lives like a single-family home, complete with a private backyard. The inviting living area features new floors and a cozy fireplace, flowing into an eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Thoughtful updates throughout make the home feel fresh and easy to live in, with in-unit laundry hookups for everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms with new carpet separated by a full bathroom, plus an attic space ideal for storage or bonus square footage. Both bathrooms have windows for fresh air. Out back, a storage shed accessible through the kitchen adds even more practical space. With no HOA fee, it’s a great option for an owner-occupant or investor. Just minutes from Top Hatters, Koolfi Creamery, AC Transit, the 580 freeway, and nearby grocery shops, the location and value can’t be beat.

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $399,000 Active 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Tucked into a friendly, community-minded pocket of the Oakland/San Leandro border, this charming 2-bed, 1.5-bath end-unit townhome in a 4-unit complex lives like a single-family home, complete with a private backyard. The inviting living area features new floors and a cozy fireplace, flowing into an eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Thoughtful updates throughout make the home feel fresh and easy to live in, with in-unit laundry hookups for everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms with new carpet separated by a full bathroom, plus an attic space ideal for storage or bonus square footage. Both bathrooms have windows for fresh air. Out back, a storage shed accessible through the kitchen adds even more practical space. With no HOA fee, it’s a great option for an owner-occupant or investor. Just minutes from Top Hatters, Koolfi Creamery, AC Transit, the 580 freeway, and nearby grocery shops, the location and value can’t be beat.

19. 1997-05-29
    soldstatus $87,000
20. 1987-09-30
    soldstatus $94,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,716 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,716 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$3,716
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,547
• − Management: −$2,547
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$2,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$486
• After-tax cash flow: $3,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0628050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,194
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #11769
• State rank: #1007 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7245

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakland, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 385,993
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,103
• Household income: $106,068
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2086.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 27% White 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -793.09%
• Current HPI: 294.5467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+216.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $299,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-23 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $348,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $378,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $399,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $94,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,716 · -57.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.