30226 Davis St · Pinehurst, TX 77355

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1998 0.46 ac lot $99/sqft · 7% above area Est $200k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing opportunity to own a generously sized triple wide mobile home boasting over 2000+ sq ft of living space! Situated on expansive and open land, this property offers endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment and expansion. A true gem for those seeking space and the freedom of unrestricted land.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 53 days

Tags

• TRIPLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• EXPANSIVE AND OPEN LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Asphalt road access; Lot is in a subdivision; Lot area approximately 0.457 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-level primary living (rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Cement siding; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1998
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Shed(s); Workshop; Storage

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 14); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 12 x 13)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.58%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: 7.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29927 Hunters Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-2%)	4mo	$200,000	$94	81
30710 Hazy Meadow Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-15%)	8mo	$245,000	$133	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,517
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-12,230
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,764/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $190	+0% $129	+5% $69	+10% $8
Rent	-10% $-36	-5% $46	+0% $129	+5% $212	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $184	base $129	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	24d	1	1.13mi
4311 Maple Root Ln Pinehurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $214,900 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Pending 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $214,900 Pending 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $235,000 Active 302-char remark
16. 2026-01-27
    soldstatus
17. 2026-01-09
    historical
18. 2025-12-27
    listed $155,000 Active
19. 2018-05-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,764 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$168/yr (+$14/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,764
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$1,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$468
• After-tax cash flow: $2,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+38.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2018-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,764 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.