9176 Old Highway 46 · Bon Aqua Junction, TN 37098

$16,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,670 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1962 18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

PENDING BEFORE PRINTthis is a short sale waiting on bank approval

Key facts

• 18.5 acre lot
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $16k).
• Cap rate 113.5% vs local median 3.0% in Bon Aqua Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Hickman Elementary (446 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman Middle School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #247 of 333 statewide, top 75%, 385 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 468 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($111 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 12.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 113.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 382.74%
• DSCR: 18.03
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.27×
• Total profit: $99,751
• Equity at exit: $14,414

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 50.61×
• Total profit: $222,242
• Equity at exit: $31,084

Cash invested: $4,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37098

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$84
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $1,429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $140

Max offer price $16,000

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,440	-5% $1,434	+0% $1,429	+5% $1,423	+10% $1,418
Rent	-10% $1,275	-5% $1,352	+0% $1,429	+5% $1,506	+10% $1,583
Rate	-1.0pp $1,437	-0.5pp $1,433	base $1,429	+0.5pp $1,425	+1.0pp $1,421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,000
• Closing costs: $480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-02-23
   listed $16,000
2. 2026-02-23
   historical
3. 2020-08-26
   status Pending
4. 2020-08-26
   historical
5. 2020-08-26
   price $91,250
6. 2020-08-21
   status Active
7. 2020-08-20
   status Pending
8. 2020-08-20
   historical
9. 2020-08-19
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2020-08-04
    historical
11. 2020-08-04
    historical
12. 2020-08-04
    listed $16,000
13. 2020-08-04
    listed $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$896
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$80
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − Depreciation: −$465
• Taxable income: $17,961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,311
• After-tax cash flow: $12,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 4701860
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,457
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8966
• State rank: #107 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bon Aqua Junction

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #14050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bon Aqua Junction, TN
• Population (ZIP): 5,933

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,337 people
• By 2030: 22,650 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 21,310 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 19,972 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 17,073 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 14,630 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 1% Danish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+27.2 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 36.09%
• Current HPI: 364.5408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $16,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-26 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-26 Price Changed $91,250 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-26 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-21 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-20 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-20 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-19 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-04 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-04 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-04 Listed $16,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-04 Listed $16,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,348 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.