King Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$242,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The King floor plan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home with three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. The first floor features an open-concept layout with a well-appointed kitchen flowing into the dining and living areas, ideal for entertaining. Upstairs, the owner's suite offers a private retreat with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide comfort and flexibility. With its functional design and inviting spaces, the King plan delivers a perfect blend of style and convenience. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $314,185

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (new construction inventory type: Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 3001 Bella Hills Ln, Katy, TX 77493

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1792 living area); Plan: King

🏗️ New construction. The $242,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,096.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,859 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,096
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1033 Texas Timbers Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-10%)	2mo	$245,000	$151	58
309 Barrel Cactus Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-10%)	5mo	$265,000	$163	55
925 Texas Timbers Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,622 (-10%)	16mo	$270,000	$166	54
313 Lone Mountain Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,855 (+4%)	23mo	$275,000	$148	45
2045 Mule Ridge Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-10%)	6mo	$245,000	$151	43
2040 Mule Ridge Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-10%)	8mo	$250,000	$154	43
377 Barrel Cactus Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,855 (+4%)	18mo	$315,000	$170	42
1012 Thunder Field Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,855 (+4%)	21mo	$280,000	$151	39
1009 Thunder Field Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-10%)	18mo	$270,000	$167	38
353 Barrel Cactus Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-10%)	23mo	$280,000	$173	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-67,419
• Equity at exit: $43,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-101,761
• Equity at exit: $25,255

Cash invested: $81,787 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,532
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,381/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $261,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-110	+0% $-211	+5% $-312	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-391	-5% $-301	+0% $-211	+5% $-120	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-136	base $-211	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,024
• Closing costs: $8,763
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Thorton Vine Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$1,929	$1.19	4d	1	0.37mi
206 Emma Rose Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,290	$1.38	0d	1	0.47mi
435 Lone Rider Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,895	$1.40	45d	1	1.04mi
452 Texas Pecan Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,995	$1.31	26d	1	1.04mi
401 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,945	$1.23	5d	1	1.13mi
404 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,290	$1.38	0d	1	1.16mi
408 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,265	$1.43	0d	1	1.16mi
412 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,040	$1.49	0d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $242,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $314,185 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,362
• − Property taxes: −$4,381
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$8,497
• Taxable loss: −$7,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint and a thorough gutter inspection would enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Inspect and clean the gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which can affect the home's value and safety.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean the gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which can affect the home's value and safety. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B