19300 Berg Rd · Detroit, MI 48219

$49,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,841 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1918 0.34 ac lot $27/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity, with 4 bedrooms, 1.5 bathroom, full basement, with 1 car garage, great size yard, close to schools, shopping area and major freeways. . Case # 261-889219 Insurability Code UI (Uninsusured) . The seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS BATVAI.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Great size yard
• Major freeways

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• GREAT SIZE YARD
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• SHOPPING AREA
• MAJOR FREEWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $907 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.5% vs local median 10.1% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.35%
• DSCR: 4.53
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,699
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -60.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19466 Archer St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,895 (+3%)	5mo	$90,000	$47	79
18890 Grayfield St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,845 (+0%)	2mo	$150,000	$81	77
19560 Berg Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+4%)	1mo	$109,000	$57	77
19192 Archer St	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (-8%)	5mo	$153,000	$90	68
19400 Greydale Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+1%)	8mo	$77,000	$41	65
19695 Riverview St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,708 (-7%)	4mo	$90,000	$53	56
20201 Cherokee St	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,917 (+4%)	4mo	$140,000	$73	55
21720 Pembroke Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,976 (+7%)	1mo	$106,000	$54	53
20338 Alderton St	0.69mi	4/1.5	1,660 (-10%)	1mo	$230,000	$139	51
19460 Burgess	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,000 (+9%)	7mo	$185,000	$93	46
20298 Redfern St	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,032 (+10%)	4mo	$187,500	$92	41
20101 Lahser Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,030 (+10%)	7mo	$88,999	$44	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $58,202
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.5%
• Equity multiple: 12.89×
• Total profit: $163,117
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48219

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $935	-5% $921	+0% $907	+5% $893	+10% $880
Rent	-10% $783	-5% $845	+0% $907	+5% $970	+10% $1,032
Rate	-1.0pp $932	-0.5pp $920	base $907	+0.5pp $895	+1.0pp $882

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17815 McIntyre St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	2324	$994	$0.43	13d	1	0.78mi
17355 McIntyre St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.99mi
17255 Westbrook St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	12d	1	1.31mi
17624 Patton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,695	$1.35	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $49,000 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Great opportunity, with 4 bedrooms, 1.5 bathroom, full basement, with 1 car garage, great size yard, close to schools, shopping area and major freeways. . Case # 261-889219 Insurability Code UI (Uninsusured) . The seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS BATVAI.

16. 2026-05-15
    price $49,000 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Great opportunity, with 4 bedrooms, 1.5 bathroom, full basement, with 1 car garage, great size yard, close to schools, shopping area and major freeways. . Case # 261-889219 Insurability Code UI (Uninsusured) . The seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS BATVAI.

17. 2026-04-10
    listed $70,000 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Great opportunity, with 4 bedrooms, 1.5 bathroom, full basement, with 1 car garage, great size yard, close to schools, shopping area and major freeways. . Case # 261-889219 Insurability Code UI (Uninsusured) . The seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS BATVAI.

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $70,000 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Great opportunity, with 4 bedrooms, 1.5 bathroom, full basement, with 1 car garage, great size yard, close to schools, shopping area and major freeways. . Case # 261-889219 Insurability Code UI (Uninsusured) . The seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS BATVAI.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $735 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $745 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $10,747
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,579
• After-tax cash flow: $8,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 47,208
• Household income: $43,655
• Rent vs Own: 45.1% rent · 54.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3584.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.06%
• Current HPI: 563.3263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $49,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $70,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $735 · -54.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.