83 Sheep Ln · Angels, CA 95222

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 138 Days on market

Built 2023 4,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new 1440 square foot home, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, all new stainless steel appliaces, and never been lived in. Includes refrigerator with ice and water in the door. All age park with elementary and high school nearby: short walking distance. Other nearby services include a large shopping center with a supermarket, restaurants, laundromat, and other needed services. Medical facilities and post office nearby also.

Key facts

• Post office
• Medical facilities
• 4,800 sq ft lot

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHORT WALKING DISTANCE
• LARGE SHOPPING CENTER
• MEDICAL FACILITIES
• POST OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 83 Sheep Lane, Angels Camp, CA 95222; Not a land-lease property
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces; Attached parking, carport, off-street parking and guest parking available; No traditional garage
• Utilities: Underground utilities; Internet available; Individual gas and electric meters; Gas plumbed to the home; Cable connected; Public sewer; Public water from a water district
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide model; New construction (built 2023); Clayton make; manufactured by CMH Manufacturing West, Inc.
• Construction: Skirted with wood; Shingle roofing; Built in 2023
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Regular-shaped lot; Attached deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood; Microwave; Ice maker and plumbed ice maker; Pantry cabinet and pantry closet; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Low-flow showers and toilets; Shower stall, tub, and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Central heating and propane supply
• Interior features: Central cooling; Propane and central heating; Energy-efficient features including insulation, thermostat, and appliances; Fireplace (other type); Window screens and dual-pane windows; Deck attached to living room; Kitchen and family room combined layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups inside a dedicated room; Gas hook-up for laundry; Gas water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $199,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $154,560.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.5% in Angels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#265 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bret Harte Union High (town): math 35% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mark Twain Elementary (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #387 of 1,571 statewide, top 26%, 514 students, 57% FRL); Bret Harte Union High (587 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.00%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,560
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
933 Mark Twain Rd	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (+6%)	5mo	$247,000	$173	64
314 S Main St #174	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	15mo	$155,000	$115	59
124 Big Buck Trl #124	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$100,000	$69	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $41,617
• Equity at exit: $23,045

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $122,190
• Equity at exit: $13,364

Cash invested: $43,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95222

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$811
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$193 /mo · $2,318/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $154,560

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,153	-5% $1,099	+0% $1,046	+5% $993	+10% $939
Rent	-10% $835	-5% $940	+0% $1,046	+5% $1,152	+10% $1,257
Rate	-1.0pp $1,124	-0.5pp $1,085	base $1,046	+0.5pp $1,006	+1.0pp $965

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,640
• Closing costs: $4,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,658
• − Property taxes: −$2,318
• − Insurance: −$773
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − Depreciation: −$4,496
• Taxable income: $10,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,575
• After-tax cash flow: $9,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bret Harte Union High
• NCES district ID: 0605940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,974
• Composite: 45.41/100
• National rank: #5708
• State rank: #429 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Angels

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #8772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Angels, CA
• City population: 164
• Population (ZIP): 5,666

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Russian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.93%
• Current HPI: 137.7432
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B