19142 N Jack Tone Rd #37 · Lockeford, CA 95237

$38,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 1971 $41/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the all ages Lockeford Mobile Home Park, this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers an open layout and a great opportunity for affordable homeownership. Inside, you'll find a large open living and dining area with updated flooring, a functional kitchen with breakfast bar seating, built-in appliances, and plenty of cabinet space. The floor plan offers comfortable living with generously sized common areas and good natural light throughout. One bathroom features an updated vanity, while the exterior includes covered parking, a covered entry, and yard space for outdoor use. Conveniently located near Hwy 88 with easy access to shopping, dining, and nearby amenities. A solid opportunity fo

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Built-in appliances
• Covered parking

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• UPDATED VANITY
• COVERED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: listed (amount provided separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; 220V in kitchen; Other electric service; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single-wide model; Fleetwood make; Built in 1971
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No built-in kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Wall-mounted cooling units
• Interior features: Great room living area; Dining and living room combined; Pets allowed with size limits
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $574 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 1.0% in Lockeford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#960 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,860 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.70%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,500
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -59.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18450 N Hwy 88 #72	0.42mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	23mo	$159,000	$166	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $30,398
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.92×
• Total profit: $73,586
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95237

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $574

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $38,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $41,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $41,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $41,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $41,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $41,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $44,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,000 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $6,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $5,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lockeford

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #24499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockeford, CA
• City population: 54,435
• Population (ZIP): 3,753

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 9% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.85%
• Current HPI: 321.7301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B