2811 SW 15th St · Delray Beach, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 26 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +14.0/15.0
- Cash flow +6.3/30.0
- 1% rule +4.6/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Schools +3.9/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- DSCR +0.6/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$245,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Key facts
- $599 HOA
- Parking
- Community pool
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (25.4% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (3.8% below list).
- Recommended offer: $183k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in FL, #3,160 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
- Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Orchard View Elementary School (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 596 students, 76% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 732 students, 73% FRL); Atlantic High School (math 28% / reading 52%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,889 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 432 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.96% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.18%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.54%
- DSCR
- 0.66
- GRM
- 8.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $286,692
- List price
- $245,000
- Delta
- -14.54%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2511 Black Olive Blvd Unit 41-C | 0.25mi | 2/2.0 | 1,167 (0%) | 12mo | $290,000 | $249 | 78 |
| 2824 Crown Ct | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 | 1,050 (-10%) | 5mo | $279,000 | $266 | 71 |
| 3817 Arelia Dr S | 0.51mi | 2/2.0 | 1,212 (+4%) | 5mo | $418,000 | $345 | 66 |
| 1141 Boxwood Dr Unit B | 0.27mi | 2/1.5 | 982 (-16%) | 5mo | $125,500 | $128 | 56 |
| 2521 Juniper Dr Unit 11-b | 0.34mi | 2/1.5 | 982 (-16%) | 2mo | $130,000 | $132 | 56 |
| 2866 SW 6th St | 0.81mi | 2/2.0 | 1,369 (+17%) | 6mo | $415,000 | $303 | 35 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.83% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -31.1%
- Equity multiple
- -0.01×
- Total profit
- $-69,482
- Equity at exit
- $36,530
- IRR
- -43.0%
- Equity multiple
- -0.53×
- Total profit
- $-105,191
- Equity at exit
- $21,183
Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 12 active · 5 under contract
- Months of supply
- 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $329,450 ($283/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 59 d
- This list price
- 17% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -13.1% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33445
- Rents YoY
- 1.8%
- Active inventory
- 432
- Price-to-rent
- 8.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,356 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,285
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
- Insurance
- −$102
- HOA
- −$599
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$495
- Net cashflow
- $-431
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-262 | -5% $-346 | +0% $-431 | +5% $-516 | +10% $-600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-617 | -5% $-524 | +0% $-431 | +5% $-338 | +10% $-245 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-308 | -0.5pp $-369 | base $-431 | +0.5pp $-494 | +1.0pp $-559 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $61,250
- Closing costs
- $7,350
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2730 SW 13th St #203 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1084 | $2,200 | $2.03 | 73d | 1 | 0.07mi |
| 2835 SW 13th St #201 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1144 | $1,975 | $1.73 | 68d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 1705 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 1-105 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 946 | $2,350 | $2.48 | 4d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 1705 Palm Cove Blvd Apt 302 Delray Beach, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 934 | $2,000 | $2.14 | 73d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 1141 Calamondin Ter #203 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1167 | $1,700 | $1.46 | 73d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 1121 Cactus Ter #202 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1167 | $2,100 | $1.80 | 73d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 1780 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 6-306 Delray Beach, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 785 | $1,900 | $2.42 | 3d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 3001 San Clara Dr Unit 4A Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1500 | $2,250 | $1.50 | 64d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 1725 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 2-306 Delray Beach, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 934 | $2,100 | $2.25 | 70d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 1101 Cactus Ter #203 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1167 | $2,100 | $1.80 | 66d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1745 Palm Cove Blvd Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 989 | $2,750 | $2.78 | 17d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1745 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 3-209 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 989 | $2,750 | $2.78 | 37d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1745 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 3-305 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1042 | $2,500 | $2.40 | 37d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1760 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 5-203 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 993 | $2,200 | $2.22 | 63d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1760 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 5-203 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 992 | $2,200 | $2.22 | 73d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1740 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 4-103 Delray Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1065 | $2,900 | $2.72 | 16d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1740 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 4-103 Delray Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1065 | $2,850 | $2.68 | 28d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1740 Palm Cove Blvd Apt 103 Delray Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1065 | $2,900 | $2.72 | 73d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1845 Palm Cove Blvd Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 857 | $2,200 | $2.57 | 42d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 2722 Peer Ln Unit 187 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $2,100 | $2.10 | 11d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 2520 Black Olive Blvd #203 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1167 | $1,799 | $1.54 | 73d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 2520 Black Olive Blvd #203 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1167 | $1,799 | $1.54 | 53d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 1130 Cactus Ter Unit 45C Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 982 | $2,000 | $2.04 | 73d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 1825 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 7-105 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 946 | $2,000 | $2.11 | 15d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 1120 Cactus Ter Unit 46C Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 982 | $2,500 | $2.55 | 4d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 1845 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 8-107 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1009 | $2,200 | $2.18 | 34d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 1845 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 8-302 Delray Beach, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 934 | $2,050 | $2.19 | 10d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 1845 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 8-301 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 857 | $2,100 | $2.45 | 42d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 1845 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 8-103 Delray Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1065 | $2,500 | $2.35 | 68d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 2715 Ponce de Leon Blvd Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $2,200 | $2.20 | 73d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 3008 San Clara Dr Unit 12B Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1230 | $2,700 | $2.20 | 43d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 2731 Knight Ln Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1050 | $2,650 | $2.52 | 37d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 1850 Homewood Blvd Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1090 | $2,550 | $2.34 | 34d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 1850 Homewood Blvd #2070 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1090 | $2,550 | $2.34 | 73d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 1120 Homewood Blvd Unit G204 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1247 | $2,525 | $2.02 | 32d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 2450 Black Olive Blvd Unit A Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1167 | $1,950 | $1.67 | 73d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 2450 Black Olive Blvd Unit A Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1167 | $1,950 | $1.67 | 64d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 1141 Violet Ter #201 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1167 | $2,200 | $1.89 | 38d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 3118 Spanish Wells Dr Unit 15B Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1230 | $2,650 | $2.15 | 73d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 1460 Augusta Cir #134 Delray Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1288 | $2,750 | $2.14 | 8d | 1 | 0.30mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Senior community
- Financial info
- Pets not allowedCommunity contains 684 units
- HOA & community
- Pines of Delray West associationMonthly HOA feeAssociation amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, fitness center, tennis courts, shuffleboard, billiard room, game room, community room, library, manager on site, parking, sidewalks, street lights, maintenanceHOA covers: cable TV, insurance, grounds maintenance, security, sewer, trash, water, common areas
Exterior
- Parking
- Assigned parking and guest parking1 open parking space (total 1)
- Security
- Closed-circuit camerasSmoke detectorsSecurity patrol
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerThree-phase electricCable connected
- Home design
- Condominium2-story buildingFaces southwestResale property
- Construction
- CBS constructionComposition/shingle roofBuilt as part of a 12-building community
- Exterior features
- WaterfrontCommunity sidewalksStreet lightsMaintenance provided
Interior
- Kitchen
- DisposalDishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorElectric water heater
- Bedrooms
- No main level bedrooms
- Flooring
- Ceramic tile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)Ceiling fans
- Interior features
- Walk-in closetsBlinds
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry inside (in kitchen)
Listing history 3 events
-
2026-05-31days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-05-03$245,000 Active
-
2023-07-14historical
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,272
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,724
- − Property taxes
- −$3,675
- − Insurance
- −$1,225
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,262
- − Management
- −$2,262
- − HOA
- −$7,188
- − Depreciation
- −$7,127
- Taxable loss
- −$9,191
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,206
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,965/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This single-family home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner or tenant.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves comfort ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Palm Beach
- NCES district ID
- 1201500
- Math proficiency
- 46% ▼ -16.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 53% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $53,943
- Composite
- 42.72/100
- National rank
- #3160
- State rank
- #34 of 73 in FL
Livability — Delray Beach
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #202
- US rank
- #3160
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Delray Beach, FL
- County
- Palm Beach County · 1,637,487 people
- City population
- 123,167
- Metro
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 33,122
- Household income
- $78,163
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,637,487 people
- By 2030
- 1,743,255 · +6.5%
- By 2040
- 1,948,712 · +19.0%
- By 2050
- 2,132,979 · +30.3%
- By 2075
- 2,530,027 · +54.5%
- By 2100
- 2,706,979 · +65.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 55% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
- Common ancestry
- Hispanic 14% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
- Foreign-born
- 27% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 66% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 18% Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 4%
Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -258.16%
- Current HPI
- 349.5505
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.83%
- Metro
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
3 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
- 2026-05-03 Listed $245,000 Beaches MLS
- 2023-07-14 Rental Removed — RMLSFL
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…