503 Lighthouse Rd · Panama City Beach, FL 32407

$194,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 935 sqft · Condo public records · 426 Days on market

Built 2006

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED!! Welcome to the heart of Panama City Beach! Nautilus Cove Condos offers nice amenities like a large lagoon style pool, fitness center, and playground. Location is ideal as the beach is only 1 mile away and shopping, schools, and entertainment are just over 2 miles. This delightful 2 bedroom 2 bath downstairs unit allows short term rentals. The flooring was recently updated and kitchen/baths have granite counter tops. Whether you're purchasing as an investment or as your forever home, this furnished unit is turn key and ready for you. If measurements deemed important, please verify.

Key facts

• Beach 1 mile away
• Fitness center
• Updated flooring

Tags

• LAGOON STYLE POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND
• BEACH 1 MILE AWAY
• UPDATED FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: All units furnished (multi-unit information)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with gated access; Association amenities include community pool

Exterior

• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story property; Mobile dimension units listed in feet
• Exterior features: Community pool; Short-term rentals allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen (approximately 5 x 9.5)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (each about 11 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hutchison Beach Elementary School (math 55% / reading 45%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 621 students, 59% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,816 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.15%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-68,035
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.17×
• Total profit: $-117,769
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,184/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$503
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $104,820

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-395	-5% $-450	+0% $-505	+5% $-560	+10% $-615
Rent	-10% $-633	-5% $-569	+0% $-505	+5% $-441	+10% $-377
Rate	-1.0pp $-407	-0.5pp $-455	base $-505	+0.5pp $-555	+1.0pp $-606

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Lighthouse Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	965	$1,500	$1.55	22d	1	0.03mi
505 Anemone St Unit 1511627P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$3,929	$3.97	22d	1	0.56mi
231 Poinsettia Dr Unit A Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,500	$1.79	22d	1	0.56mi
314 Evergreen St Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,800	$1.88	22d	1	0.57mi
1105 Clara Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,863	$1.99	15d	14	0.58mi
900 Clara Ave Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,800	$1.59	15d	15	0.64mi
15817 Front Beach Rd Unit 1523369P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	2.0	839	$5,602	$6.68	15d	1	0.79mi
201 Hills Rd Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,175	$2.19	22d	20	1.09mi
302 Cabana Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1184	$1,550	$1.31	15d	15	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $194,000
3. 2025-11-04
   status Active
4. 2025-10-24
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-07-02
   price $199,000
6. 2025-05-19
   status Active
7. 2025-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-04-19
   price $220,000
9. 2025-02-17
   listed $239,000 Active
10. 2025-01-02
    historical
11. 2024-11-04
    listed $239,000 Active
12. 2024-10-23
    historical
13. 2024-06-11
    price $239,000
14. 2024-04-30
    price $249,000
15. 2024-02-14
    listed $257,500 Active
16. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus $185,000
17. 2018-04-02
    soldstatus $129,000
18. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus $129,000
19. 2017-10-21
    listed $129,900
20. 2017-07-25
    historical
21. 2017-06-01
    listed $122,900
22. 2016-12-30
    soldstatus $100,000
23. 2016-07-29
    listed $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,184 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,184 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,184
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − HOA: −$6,036
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$9,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+84.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $194,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $239,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listed $239,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $239,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $249,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-02-14 Listed $257,500 CPARMLS
• 2023-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-29 Sold (MLS) $129,000 CPARMLS
• 2017-10-21 Listed $129,900 CPARMLS
• 2017-07-25 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2017-06-01 Listed $122,900 CPARMLS
• 2016-12-30 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-07-29 Listed $105,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,184 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.