4815 Airway Dr NE #177 · Cascade Valley, WA 98837

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1987 $66/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a quiet, well-established neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home in Harvest Manor Estates offers comfortable living space and is move-in ready! The large primary bedroom features its own private full bath and walk-in closet. Enjoy durable laminate wood flooring throughout the home, central heating and air. The yard is large, and ready for your gardening touches. Located in a great park that includes area includes a community playground, seasonal pool, and a large clubhouse. Don’t miss out — schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Community playground
• Large clubhouse

Tags

• PRIVATE FULL BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND
• LARGE CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 2.7% in Cascade Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#370 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: commute D, employment D, schools F.
• Moses Lake School District (town): math 38% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #198 of 291 in WA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.13%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,966
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -64.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4815 NE Airway Dr #105	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-12%)	8mo	$87,000	$76	74
4815 NE Airway Dr #142	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-8%)	22mo	$80,000	$67	67
9079 4.8 Rd NE	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	8mo	$295,000	$211	66
8653 Harris Rd NE	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	3mo	$220,000	$170	64
8334 8336 Terminal St NE	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-8%)	8mo	$257,000	$216	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $39,180
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $88,603
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98837

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $380/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $915

Break-even live

Break-even rent $649

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $963	-5% $939	+0% $915	+5% $891	+10% $867
Rent	-10% $772	-5% $843	+0% $915	+5% $986	+10% $1,058
Rate	-1.0pp $958	-0.5pp $936	base $915	+0.5pp $893	+1.0pp $870

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7622 McDougal Ave NE Unit 3 Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,300	$1.27	44d	1	0.32mi
205 March Dr NE Unit Labs Moses Lake, WA	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,750	$1.22	44d	1	0.33mi
207 March Dr NE Moses Lake, WA	3.0	1.5	1220	$1,850	$1.52	44d	1	0.34mi
7560 McDougal Ave NE Unit C Moses Lake, WA	2.0	2.0	1360	$1,950	$1.43	44d	1	0.39mi
1232 Vandenburg Ave Moses Lake, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	44d	1	0.61mi
8915 Travis Dr Unit B Moses Lake, WA	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,100	$0.96	44d	1	0.61mi
4727 Owens Rd NE #24 Moses Lake, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.74mi
1903 Hickory Rd Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1743	$2,450	$1.41	44d	1	1.20mi
1118 W Sequoia Rd Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.0	1235	$2,000	$1.62	44d	1	1.29mi
1013 W Maple Dr Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,875	$1.29	44d	1	1.34mi
1422 E Craig St Moses Lake, WA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,138	$1.16	45d	1	1.40mi
1005 W Sequoia Rd Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1743	$2,095	$1.20	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $85,000 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-04-22
   listed $98,000 Active
8. 2023-05-12
   soldstatus $79,000 Closed
9. 2023-04-04
   status Pending
10. 2023-03-28
    status Active
11. 2023-02-10
    status Pending
12. 2023-01-13
    listed $85,000 Active
13. 2002-02-08
    soldstatus $23,000
14. 2001-05-14
    listed $27,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 119.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$380
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $10,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,443
• After-tax cash flow: $8,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moses Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 5305220
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,033
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #8232
• State rank: #198 of 291 in WA

Livability — Cascade Valley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #14130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing D- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cascade Valley, WA
• County: Grant County · 61,643 people
• City population: 47,399
• Metro: Moses Lake, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,455
• Household income: $74,586
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1064.0

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,356 people
• By 2030: 102,107 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 108,318 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 114,712 · +15.5%
• By 2075: 131,376 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 146,163 · +47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Subsaharan African 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.4% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+37.9 2012: R+32.6 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -384.29%
• Current HPI: 208.4574
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.72%
• Metro: Moses Lake, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+250.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $98,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-12 Sold (MLS) $79,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-28 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-10 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-13 Listed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-02-08 Sold (MLS) $23,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-14 Listed $27,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $380 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.