21 Pine Arbor Ln · Florida Ridge, FL 32962

$115,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 750 sqft · Townhouse · 170 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $111k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. Take a look at this one! Clean, bright and well taken care of. Newer carpet & tile. Laundry is inside unit. Enclosed porch with views of tennis courts and pool. Storm Shutters. Community has 4 club houses, 4 heated pools, 3 tennis courts, shuffleboard and many activity rooms.

Key facts

• Tennis
• Turn key condo
• Shuffleboard

Tags

• TURN KEY CONDO
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE LANAI
• SIX PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS
• SHUFFLEBOARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.5% in Florida Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#353 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $115k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.81%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Vista Palm Ln #105	0.09mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	0mo	$85,000	$113	96
12 Vista Palm Ln #205	0.12mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	4mo	$89,500	$119	91
34 Pine Arbor Ln #203	0.21mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	3mo	$120,000	$160	88
55 Woodland Dr #203	0.44mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	2mo	$90,000	$120	78
46 Woodland Dr #103	0.49mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	4mo	$116,500	$155	74
61 Woodland Dr #205	0.51mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	3mo	$46,500	$62	73
89 Crooked Tree Ln #103	0.61mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	2mo	$66,000	$88	70
78 Royal Oak Dr #103	0.69mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	2mo	$111,000	$148	66
84 Crooked Tree Ln #105	0.67mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	3mo	$124,000	$165	66
3 Vista Palm Ln #204	0.25mi	1/1.0	670 (-11%)	6mo	$107,000	$160	64
74 Royal Oak Ct #205	0.71mi	1/1.5	750 (0%)	4mo	$75,000	$100	63
671 S Centre Ct SW #201	0.68mi	2/2.0 (+1)	814 (+8%)	4mo	$125,000	$154	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,324
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $38,790
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32962

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Pine Arbor Ln #105 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,800	$2.40	21d	1	0.08mi
28 Pine Arbor Ln #103 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,200	$1.60	21d	1	0.09mi
16 Vista Palm Ln Vero Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	21d	2	0.16mi
37 Pine Arbor Ln #101 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	13d	1	0.22mi
5 Vista Palm Ln #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,500	$2.00	13d	1	0.24mi
36 Pine Arbor Ln Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	21d	2	0.24mi
58 Woodland Dr #206 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	13d	1	0.47mi
50 Woodland Dr #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,350	$1.80	13d	1	0.49mi
60 Woodland Dr Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,125	$1.79	21d	1	0.52mi
60 Woodland Dr #204 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,250	$1.98	13d	1	0.52mi
52 Woodland Dr #204 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,300	$2.06	21d	1	0.53mi
65 Woodland Dr #207 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	21d	1	0.53mi
86 Crooked Tree Ln #102 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	13d	1	0.62mi
85 Crooked Tree Ln #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,450	$1.93	21d	1	0.65mi
80 Crooked Tree Ln #106 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	13d	1	0.67mi
74 Royal Oak Ct #204 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,175	$1.87	21d	1	0.68mi
103 Royal Oak Dr #106 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	13d	1	0.76mi
101 Spring Lake Dr #204 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,275	$2.02	21d	1	0.78mi
95 Spring Lake Dr #103 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,600	$2.13	21d	1	0.78mi
102 Royal Oak Dr #105 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,550	$2.07	21d	1	0.82mi
15 Vista Gardens Trl #104 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,300	$2.06	13d	1	1.07mi
43 Vista Gardens Trl #205 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,450	$1.93	21d	1	1.21mi
23 Vista Gardens Trl #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,500	$2.00	21d	1	1.24mi
26 Vista Gardens Trl #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,350	$1.80	21d	1	1.32mi
33 Vista Gardens Trl #104 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,500	$2.38	13d	1	1.35mi
36 Vista Gardens Trl #201 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,390	$1.39	21d	1	1.36mi
34 Vista Gardens Trl #107 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	21d	1	1.36mi
28 Vista Gardens Trl #102 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	21d	1	1.37mi
35 Vista Gardens Trl #205 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	934	$1,400	$1.50	21d	1	1.38mi
11 Vista Gardens Trl #106 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	21d	1	1.39mi
4 Vista Gardens Trl #207 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	13d	1	1.39mi
528 7th Sq #102 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$3,000	$2.74	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-14
   historical Under Contract
2. 2026-01-11
   status Active
3. 2026-01-11
   price $115,000
4. 2025-12-28
   historical
5. 2025-09-19
   price $128,000
6. 2025-09-11
   listed $134,000 Active
7. 2025-08-09
   historical $1,300
8. 2025-06-30
   listed $1,300
9. 2013-03-20
   soldstatus $25,000 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   Short Sale. Take a look at this one! Clean, bright and well taken care of. Newer carpet & tile. Laundry is inside unit. Enclosed porch with views of tennis courts and pool. Storm Shutters. Community has 4 club houses, 4 heated pools, 3 tennis courts, shuffleboard and many activity rooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$559
• After-tax cash flow: $3,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Florida Ridge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #6129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florida Ridge, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• City population: 25,629
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,522
• Household income: $66,664
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.13%
• Current HPI: 333.3274
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+360.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Contingent — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-11 Relisted — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $115,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-12-28 Delisted — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $128,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-09-11 Listed $134,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-08-09 Rental Removed $1,300 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-06-30 Listed for Rent $1,300 SHOWMOJO
• 2013-03-20 Sold (MLS) $25,000 RAIRCMLS