12530 County Road 3740 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$269,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Land · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 0.50 ac lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into the lifestyle you’ve been dreaming of with this stunning new construction sanctuary, currently under construction on a sprawling 0.5-acre lot. The "Oak" floor plan is meticulously designed to be more than just a house; it’s a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom haven where your family can grow and create lasting memories. Imagine sipping your coffee on the expansive 10x18 front covered deck as you watch the sunrise over your quiet piece of Texas. Host unforgettable summer BBQs, with plenty of room for kids and pets to play in the massive backyard. Experience the freedom of a low tax rate with no MUD tax, allowing you to invest more in the things that matter most.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Southern Crossing HOA; HOA fee $180 annually; HOA covers common areas and recreation facilities; Community pool; Community security amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Additional parking; Driveway; 2-space carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Faces south; Single-level entry
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Built by Integrity Land Development
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Backs to greenbelt/park; Cleared lot; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 14'3" x 12'7"; Bedroom (first floor) — 9'5" x 12'7"; Bedroom (first floor) — 9'5" x 12'7"; Bedroom (first floor) — 9'0" x 12'7"; Bedroom (first floor) — 9'0" x 12'7"; Den (first floor) — 13'11" x 12'7"
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); HVAC energy-efficient
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Laminate counters; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $269,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $187,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,978 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.58%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,500
• List price: $269,999
• Delta: 44.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,618
• Equity at exit: $27,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $34,544
• Equity at exit: $16,212

Cash invested: $52,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$983
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $588/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $187,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,875
• Closing costs: $5,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,999 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,999 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,999 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,999 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,999 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,999 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,999 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,999 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,999 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,999 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,999 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,999 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $269,999 Active 949-char remark
15. 2026-05-14
    historical $269,999 949-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $588 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,941 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,353/yr (+$363/mo · 740.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,503
• − Property taxes: −$588
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,455
• Taxable income: $1,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$357
• After-tax cash flow: $4,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $269,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $269,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $588 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.