400 Gupster Rd #1 · Carlsborg, WA 98382

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $174k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this peaceful community just minutes from downtown Sequim. This charming home offers comfortable, low-maintenance living surrounded by the natural beauty of the Olympic Peninsula. Enjoy nearby access to the Olympic Discovery Trail, Dungeness River, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, all while living in a quiet neighborhood known for its mountain views and relaxed lifestyle. Thoughtfully maintained, this home features durable metal exterior siding, a torch-down roof, vinyl thermal-pane windows, and aluminum gutters for year-round peace of mind. Relax outdoors on the inviting free-standing wood porch and spacious covered deck area, perfect for morning coffee or entertaining

Key facts

• Dungeness river
• Torch-down roof
• Mountain views

Tags

• OLYMPIC DISCOVERY TRAIL
• DUNGENESS RIVER
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• DURABLE METAL EXTERIOR SIDING
• TORCH-DOWN ROOF
• VINYL THERMAL-PANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area approximately 1,440; Style code: Manufactured double-wide; Structure type: Manufactured house; Lot size units recorded in square feet
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park approved for sale; Pets allowed — see remarks; Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Electric water heater; Community water; Clallam PUD power; Community sewer/water service
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Good condition; Has view; Located in Green Acres manufactured home park; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Metal and wood exterior; Metal skirting; Torch down roof
• Exterior features: Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Corner lot; Paved lot; Common area (manufactured home park)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Trash compactor; Kitchen with eating space; Dining room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; Primary bath access (bath off primary)
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Forced air heating; Forced air cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 2.4% in Carlsborg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.86%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 Gupster #2	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+4%)	10mo	$120,000	$80	79
200 Fircrest Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	0mo	$190,000	$133	77
42 Hayden Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-0%)	8mo	$167,500	$117	76
20 Eds Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+5%)	1mo	$166,000	$110	73
410 Parkwood Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	9mo	$215,000	$153	72
391 Parkwood	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,558 (+8%)	0mo	$235,000	$151	65
121 Fircrest Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	11mo	$169,177	$112	64
151 Parkwood Blvd	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$161,300	$120	63
20 Brett Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,286 (-11%)	7mo	$156,000	$121	58
120 Fircrest Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+12%)	5mo	$186,500	$115	56
220 Carlsborg Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+8%)	6mo	$399,999	$257	48
30 Marjory	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-15%)	6mo	$196,000	$160	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $55,177
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $144,057
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98382

• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $540/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $917

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,240	-5% $1,206	+0% $1,172	+5% $1,138	+10% $1,104
Rent	-10% $982	-5% $1,077	+0% $1,172	+5% $1,267	+10% $1,362
Rate	-1.0pp $1,233	-0.5pp $1,203	base $1,172	+0.5pp $1,141	+1.0pp $1,109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $540 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$636/yr (+$53/mo · 117.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$540
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $12,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,083
• After-tax cash flow: $10,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sequim School District
• NCES district ID: 5307830
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,969
• Composite: 52.77/100
• National rank: #3312
• State rank: #64 of 291 in WA

Livability — Carlsborg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #20503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsborg, WA
• County: Clallam County · 31,052 people
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,052
• Household income: $74,189
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Clallam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,817 people
• By 2030: 78,177 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 79,795 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 80,890 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 83,933 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 82,141 · +6.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clallam

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 52.6% · R 44.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+3.4 2016: R+1.6 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.89%
• Current HPI: 181.4372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+36.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $540 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.