2421 Ala Wai Blvd #1603 · Urban Honolulu, HI 96815

$54,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Condo public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1973 $114/sqft · 85% below area $579/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located in Waikiki. .. unit has an enclosed lanai for more space. LEASEHOLD Unit. Lease fee and Maintenance fees are being confirmed and will be updated.

Key facts

• Enclosed lanai
• $579 HOA
• Parking

Tags

• ENCLOSED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 1.5% in Urban Honolulu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.57%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,754
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -85.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.74% appreciation · 6.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $21,828
• Equity at exit: $23,894

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $76,885
• Equity at exit: $36,221

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96815

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,073/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$579
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,779

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $160	+0% $144	+5% $129	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $67	+0% $144	+5% $222	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $158	base $144	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2442 Tusitala St Apt 103 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	300	$1,900	$6.33	44d	1	0.03mi
249 Kapili St Unit 1 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	290	$1,350	$4.66	22d	1	0.07mi
249 Kapili St #101 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	225	$1,500	$6.67	24d	1	0.07mi
242 Kaʻiulani Ave Unit 4 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,200	$4.74	24d	1	0.09mi
242 Kaiulani Ave Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,250	$4.94	24d	1	0.09mi
232 Kaiulani Ave Honolulu, HI	3.0	1.0	656	$3,088	$4.71	24d	8	0.10mi
2509 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	215	$1,725	$8.02	24d	2	0.13mi
2509 Ala Wai Blvd #503 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	215	$1,750	$8.14	4d	1	0.13mi
234 Ohua Ave #217 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	257	$1,550	$6.03	24d	1	0.18mi
300 Wai Nani Way Unit 1808 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	321	$1,700	$5.30	44d	1	0.24mi
2572 Lemon Rd Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	398	$2,597	$6.53	4d	3	0.39mi
234 Hua AVE Unit 103 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	257	$1,550	$6.03	4d	1	0.60mi
440 Olohana St Unit 1327703P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$4,055	$11.42	12d	1	0.69mi
440 Olohana St Unit 1327711P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$3,741	$10.54	3d	1	0.69mi
902 University Ave Unit C Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	415	$2,318	$5.58	24d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $579 · $6,948/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,900 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,900 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    price $69,900 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Conveniently located in Waikiki. .. unit has an enclosed lanai for more space. LEASEHOLD Unit. Lease fee and Maintenance fees are being confirmed and will be updated.

17. 2026-01-26
    price $79,900 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Conveniently located in Waikiki. .. unit has an enclosed lanai for more space. LEASEHOLD Unit. Lease fee and Maintenance fees are being confirmed and will be updated.

18. 2025-11-24
    listed $89,900 Active 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Conveniently located in Waikiki. .. unit has an enclosed lanai for more space. LEASEHOLD Unit. Lease fee and Maintenance fees are being confirmed and will be updated.

19. 2015-09-03
    historical
20. 2015-03-24
    listed $215,000 Active
21. 2003-03-21
    soldstatus $130,000
22. 1971-04-01
    soldstatus $30,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$1,073
• − Insurance: −$5,393
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − HOA: −$6,948
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $1,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$406
• After-tax cash flow: $1,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Urban Honolulu

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urban Honolulu, HI
• County: Honolulu County · 963,448 people
• City population: 309,956
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• Population (ZIP): 27,530
• Household income: $77,096
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2422.0

Population outlook (Honolulu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,072,641 people
• By 2030: 1,110,460 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,181,593 · +10.2%
• By 2050: 1,257,584 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 1,501,120 · +39.9%
• By 2100: 1,764,430 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 41% White 35% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Chinese 5% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Honolulu

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.6) · D 59.9% · R 38.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.1pp · 2024: 21.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.6 2020: D+26.9 2016: D+29.9 2012: D+39.1 2008: D+41.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Current HPI: 291.9404
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.00%
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+126.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $69,900 HiCentral MLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $79,900 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $89,900 HiCentral MLS
• 2015-09-03 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2015-03-24 Listed $215,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2003-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1971-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,073 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.