3029 Sorrento Hill Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$340,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,819 sqft · Land · 63 Days on market

Built 2025 6,922 sqft lot $187/sqft · at area comps Est $353k · at est. $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The open-concept layout of the Heron seamlessly connects the family room, kitchen and dining area, creating a spacious and fluid entertainment zone. Whether you're hosting a cozy family dinner or hosting a party, this area is the perfect backdrop for all your entertaining needs. The well-appointed kitchen is the hub for family meals and socializing. The breakfast bar is a natural gathering spot providing a place to catch up as dinner is being prepared. With its stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and white cabinets with matte black hardware, the kitchen is a stylish focal point that adds to the overall ambiance of the Heron.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Dining area
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $341k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($234/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 18 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $280,093 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,967
• List price: $340,900
• Delta: -3.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-62,262
• Equity at exit: $50,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-84,571
• Equity at exit: $29,475

Cash invested: $95,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,788
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,165/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,776

Max offer price $340,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $116	+0% $20	+5% $-77	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-91	+0% $20	+5% $130	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $106	base $20	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,225
• Closing costs: $10,227
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2845 Shimmer Edge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	2362	$2,400	$1.02	6d	1	0.32mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$2,940	$1.50	2d	54	0.44mi
28625 Clay Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,000	$1.07	44d	1	0.50mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	44d	1	1.21mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	11d	1	1.21mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,900 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $340,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $340,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $340,900 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    The open-concept layout of the Heron seamlessly connects the family room, kitchen and dining area, creating a spacious and fluid entertainment zone. Whether you're hosting a cozy family dinner or hosting a party, this area is the perfect backdrop for all your entertaining needs. The well-appointed kitchen is the hub for family meals and socializing. The breakfast bar is a natural gathering spot providing a place to catch up as dinner is being prepared. With its stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and white cabinets with matte black hardware, the kitchen is a stylish focal point that adds to the overall ambiance of the Heron.

15. 2026-04-22
    historical $3,055
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $379,900 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    The open-concept layout of the Heron seamlessly connects the family room, kitchen and dining area, creating a spacious and fluid entertainment zone. Whether you're hosting a cozy family dinner or hosting a party, this area is the perfect backdrop for all your entertaining needs. The well-appointed kitchen is the hub for family meals and socializing. The breakfast bar is a natural gathering spot providing a place to catch up as dinner is being prepared. With its stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and white cabinets with matte black hardware, the kitchen is a stylish focal point that adds to the overall ambiance of the Heron.

17. 2026-01-28
    listed $3,055
18. 2026-01-22
    historical
19. 2026-01-09
    historical $3,055
20. 2025-12-19
    listed $380,900 Active
21. 2025-12-18
    historical
22. 2025-12-16
    price $3,055
23. 2025-12-07
    listed $3,115
24. 2025-11-28
    historical $3,115
25. 2025-11-22
    price $3,115
26. 2025-11-21
    listed $380,900 Active
27. 2025-11-20
    historical
28. 2025-10-26
    listed $3,145
29. 2025-10-24
    historical $3,145
30. 2025-10-17
    historical
31. 2025-10-17
    listed $380,900 Active
32. 2025-10-02
    price $380,900
33. 2025-09-20
    listed $3,145
34. 2025-09-19
    historical $3,145
35. 2025-09-12
    listed $376,900 Active
36. 2025-09-11
    historical
37. 2025-08-09
    listed $3,145
38. 2025-08-08
    listed $376,900 Active
39. 2025-08-07
    historical
40. 2025-07-11
    price $376,900
41. 2025-07-08
    listed $386,900 Active
42. 2025-07-03
    historical
43. 2025-07-01
    price $386,900
44. 2025-05-30
    listed $382,900 Active
45. 2025-05-29
    historical
46. 2025-04-25
    listed $382,900 Active
47. 2025-04-24
    historical
48. 2025-04-04
    price $382,900
49. 2025-03-21
    listed $389,900 Active
50. 2025-03-20
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,165 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,238 · $520/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,073/yr (+$339/mo · 188.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,096
• − Property taxes: −$2,165
• − Insurance: −$1,704
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,689
• − Management: −$2,689
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$9,917
• Taxable loss: −$5,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,355
• After-tax cash flow: $1,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $340,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Rental Removed $3,055 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $379,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed for Rent $3,055 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Rental Removed $3,055 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $380,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $3,055 HARMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed for Rent $3,115 HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Rental Removed $3,115 HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $3,115 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $380,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listed for Rent $3,145 HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Rental Removed $3,145 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $380,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $380,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed for Rent $3,145 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Rental Removed $3,145 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $376,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Listed for Rent $3,145 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $376,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $376,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $386,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $386,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed $382,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $382,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $382,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $389,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $389,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $383,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $392,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $379,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,165 · +33.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.