34 Holly Dr · Carrollton, GA 30116

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1983 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR/2BTH Home in Carrollton. Master bath features garden tub. Back deck overlooks private back yard. BRAND NEW A/C. Water heater only 2 years old. Furnace serviced within last 60 days and new motor installed. Sold AS IS.

Key facts

• Updated vinyl siding
• Painted interior
• Huge backyard

Tags

• UPDATED VINYL SIDING
• PAINTED INTERIOR
• SHINGLED ROOF
• HUGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.3% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#113 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #38 of 174 in GA (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sand Hill Elementary School (math 48% / reading 33%, grade F, #419 of 1,228 statewide, top 35%, 696 students, 58% FRL); Bay Springs Middle School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #126 of 470 statewide, top 28%, 930 students, 57% FRL); Villa Rica High School (math 16% / reading 34%, grade F, #181 of 424 statewide, top 43%, 1,807 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 876 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $130k implies a 862% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.82%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $13,302
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $55,671
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30116

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $437/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $614	-5% $577	+0% $540	+5% $503	+10% $467
Rent	-10% $409	-5% $475	+0% $540	+5% $606	+10% $671
Rate	-1.0pp $606	-0.5pp $573	base $540	+0.5pp $507	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-12
   status Back On Market
3. 2026-02-16
   status Under Contract
4. 2026-02-10
   listed $129,900 New
5. 2015-10-08
   soldstatus $13,500 Sold 220-char remark

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   3BR/2BTH Home in Carrollton. Master bath features garden tub. Back deck overlooks private back yard. BRAND NEW A/C. Water heater only 2 years old. Furnace serviced within last 60 days and new motor installed. Sold AS IS.

6. 2015-10-03
   historical Pending 220-char remark

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   3BR/2BTH Home in Carrollton. Master bath features garden tub. Back deck overlooks private back yard. BRAND NEW A/C. Water heater only 2 years old. Furnace serviced within last 60 days and new motor installed. Sold AS IS.

7. 2015-10-01
   price $13,500 220-char remark

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   3BR/2BTH Home in Carrollton. Master bath features garden tub. Back deck overlooks private back yard. BRAND NEW A/C. Water heater only 2 years old. Furnace serviced within last 60 days and new motor installed. Sold AS IS.

8. 2015-10-01
   price $13,000 220-char remark

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   3BR/2BTH Home in Carrollton. Master bath features garden tub. Back deck overlooks private back yard. BRAND NEW A/C. Water heater only 2 years old. Furnace serviced within last 60 days and new motor installed. Sold AS IS.

9. 2015-10-01
   listed $13 Active 220-char remark

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   3BR/2BTH Home in Carrollton. Master bath features garden tub. Back deck overlooks private back yard. BRAND NEW A/C. Water heater only 2 years old. Furnace serviced within last 60 days and new motor installed. Sold AS IS.

10. 2008-09-15
    soldstatus $86,585
11. 1998-10-14
    soldstatus $37,000
12. 1998-09-17
    soldstatus $35,000
13. 1994-09-15
    soldstatus $11,200
14. 1994-09-06
    soldstatus $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $437 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$758/yr (+$63/mo · 173.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$437
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,594
• − Management: −$1,594
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $4,598
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $5,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County
• NCES district ID: 1300840
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,692
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4888
• State rank: #38 of 174 in GA

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #8542

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carroll County · 124,888 people
• City population: 61,993
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,189
• Household income: $77,030
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 332.0

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,370 people
• By 2030: 127,186 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 133,534 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 137,612 · +11.5%
• By 2075: 142,892 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 136,294 · +10.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.1% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.61%
• Current HPI: 365.8744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+340.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $129,900 GAMLS
• 2015-10-08 Sold (MLS) $13,500 FMLS
• 2015-10-03 Contingent — FMLS
• 2015-10-01 Price Changed $13,500 FMLS
• 2015-10-01 Price Changed $13,000 FMLS
• 2015-10-01 Listed $13 FMLS
• 2008-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $86,585 Public Records
• 1998-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $11,200 Public Records
• 1994-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $437 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.