96 Doe Run · Thornton, NH 03285

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1978 1.00 ac lot Est $574k · 36% under · waterfront $171/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

WHAT A FIND! THIS 3BDRM CONTEMPORARY IS NESTLED IN THE WOODS ON THE RIVER IN BEAUTIFUL WATERVILLE ESTATES. MANY IMPROVEMENTS MADE. ENJOY THE MOUNTAINS AND RIVER ALL FROM YOUR HIDEAWAY! OPEN CONCEPT, FIREPLACE, DECK, NEW SLIDER, MUST SEE!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, exercise facility, recreation facilities, landscaped common acreage, indoor heated pool, in-ground pool, hot tub, sauna, locker rooms and pickleball

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Community water; Private sewer; 200 amp electrical service; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Contemporary style; Existing construction; Grey exterior
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle - asphalt roof; Built in 1978
• Exterior features: Country setting with mountain, water and waterfront views; River/stream on or near property; Walking trails nearby; Near skiing and snowmobile trails; Near paths; Near school(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric stove; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Finished basement with concrete floor, interior stairs, interior and exterior access
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; No water heater listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $365k).
• Recommended offer: $360k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pemi-Baker Regional School District (rural): math 45% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #77 of 171 in NH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thornton Central School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #33 of 263 statewide, top 15%, 185 students, 25% FRL); Plymouth Regional High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #37 of 90 statewide, top 49%, 646 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $102k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 93% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $187k; list at $365k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $359,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.06%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $573,974
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Doe Run	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+10%)	22mo	$615,000	$419	64
54 Pegwood Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	13mo	$430,000	$318	63
37 Pegwood Hill Rd	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,249 (-7%)	4mo	$359,750	$288	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $220,906
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $633,415
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03285

• Home prices YoY: 29.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,269/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,282

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $449	+0% $346	+5% $242	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $52	-5% $199	+0% $346	+5% $493	+10% $640
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $439	base $346	+0.5pp $251	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $171 · $2,052/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $365,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $365,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $365,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   status $365,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active with Contract 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active with Contract 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active with Contract 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    statusdays on market $365,000 Active with Contract 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $365,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-05
    days on market $365,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 5 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 4 DOM
20. 2026-05-19
    historical $365,000
21. 2006-01-09
    soldstatus $187,000
22. 2006-01-06
    soldstatus $187,000 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    WHAT A FIND! THIS 3BDRM CONTEMPORARY IS NESTLED IN THE WOODS ON THE RIVER IN BEAUTIFUL WATERVILLE ESTATES. MANY IMPROVEMENTS MADE. ENJOY THE MOUNTAINS AND RIVER ALL FROM YOUR HIDEAWAY! OPEN CONCEPT, FIREPLACE, DECK, NEW SLIDER, MUST SEE!

23. 2005-07-24
    listed $189,000 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    WHAT A FIND! THIS 3BDRM CONTEMPORARY IS NESTLED IN THE WOODS ON THE RIVER IN BEAUTIFUL WATERVILLE ESTATES. MANY IMPROVEMENTS MADE. ENJOY THE MOUNTAINS AND RIVER ALL FROM YOUR HIDEAWAY! OPEN CONCEPT, FIREPLACE, DECK, NEW SLIDER, MUST SEE!

24. 2004-03-01
    soldstatus $157,500
25. 2004-02-25
    soldstatus $157,500 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    THIS 3 BR CONTEMPORARY HOME IS NESTLED ON A ONE OF A KIND PARCEL. RELAX ON YOUR DECK AND NOT ONLY ENJOY THE MT VIEWS BUT ALSO THE SOUNDS OF THE MAD RIVER DOWN BELOW. THIS OPEN CONCEPT HIDEAWAY FEATURES A FIREPLACE, OIL HEAT, CATH. CEILINGS AND DECK.

26. 2004-01-12
    historical 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    THIS 3 BR CONTEMPORARY HOME IS NESTLED ON A ONE OF A KIND PARCEL. RELAX ON YOUR DECK AND NOT ONLY ENJOY THE MT VIEWS BUT ALSO THE SOUNDS OF THE MAD RIVER DOWN BELOW. THIS OPEN CONCEPT HIDEAWAY FEATURES A FIREPLACE, OIL HEAT, CATH. CEILINGS AND DECK.

27. 2003-07-29
    listed $169,900 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    THIS 3 BR CONTEMPORARY HOME IS NESTLED ON A ONE OF A KIND PARCEL. RELAX ON YOUR DECK AND NOT ONLY ENJOY THE MT VIEWS BUT ALSO THE SOUNDS OF THE MAD RIVER DOWN BELOW. THIS OPEN CONCEPT HIDEAWAY FEATURES A FIREPLACE, OIL HEAT, CATH. CEILINGS AND DECK.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,269 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,113 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,844/yr (+$154/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$4,269
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,571
• − Management: −$3,571
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$1,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$411
• After-tax cash flow: $4,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemi-Baker Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3399965
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,275
• Composite: 49.93/100
• National rank: #4161
• State rank: #77 of 171 in NH

Livability — Thornton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,763

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Lithuanian 12% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.72%
• Current HPI: 468.1616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+114.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $365,000 PrimeMLS
• 2006-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $187,000 Public Records
• 2006-01-06 Sold (MLS) $187,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-07-24 Listed $189,000 PrimeMLS
• 2004-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $157,500 Public Records
• 2004-02-25 Sold (MLS) $157,500 PrimeMLS
• 2004-01-12 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2003-07-29 Listed $169,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,269 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.