2617 Garfield Ave · Ashland, KY 41101

$108,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 810 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

7,000 sqft lot Est $79k · 37% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home in quiet neighborhood. Upstairs can be used as a separate apartment, complete with full kitchen and bath. Call today for more information! * * Seller is offering a $5,000 allowance, at closing, for any repairs. * *

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Listed 168 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.1% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#304 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashland Independent (urban): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #49 of 165 in KY (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $108k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.96%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,570
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1412 Wurts Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-1%)	1mo	$45,000	$56	72
1816 Pike Street St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	823 (+2%)	5mo	$65,000	$79	72
2216 Blackburn Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	866 (+7%)	15mo	$115,000	$133	60
3106 Charles Street St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	892 (+10%)	12mo	$82,000	$92	50
2705 Blackburn Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	900 (+11%)	11mo	$92,000	$102	49
1671 Beech St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	887 (+10%)	20mo	$85,000	$96	49
3106 S 29th St St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (+3%)	23mo	$12,100	$15	48
3112 S 29th Street St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	787 (-3%)	23mo	$32,500	$41	48
3450 Willis Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	912 (+13%)	14mo	$120,000	$132	43
2706 Iroquois Ave Ave	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	922 (+14%)	14mo	$113,600	$123	36
2218 Griffith Street St	0.65mi	3/1.0	912 (+13%)	13mo	$126,100	$138	36
2416 Boone St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	700 (-14%)	10mo	$68,000	$97	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-4,785
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $12,059
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41101

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $266/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $802

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $231	+0% $200	+5% $170	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $159	+0% $200	+5% $242	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $255	-0.5pp $228	base $200	+0.5pp $173	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2024-03-05
   status Pending
2. 2023-06-30
   price $108,000
3. 2023-06-23
   price $103,000
4. 2023-05-26
   price $108,000
5. 2023-05-03
   status Active
6. 2023-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2023-03-03
   listed $112,000 Active
8. 2023-03-01
   status Active Under Contract
9. 2022-08-30
   status Active Under Contract
10. 2022-06-21
    listed $105,000 Active
11. 1993-06-25
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $266 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $929 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 249.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$266
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$155
• After-tax cash flow: $2,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland Independent
• NCES district ID: 2100150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,579
• Composite: 31.51/100
• National rank: #5971
• State rank: #49 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #14462

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, KY
• City population: 19,331
• Population (ZIP): 19,331

Population outlook (Boyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,137 people
• By 2030: 44,585 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 41,442 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 38,313 · -17.0%
• By 2075: 31,077 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 23,432 · -49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 30.0% · R 68.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.83%
• Current HPI: 148.0076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-05 Pending — AABOR
• 2023-06-30 Price Changed $108,000 AABOR
• 2023-06-23 Price Changed $103,000 AABOR
• 2023-05-26 Price Changed $108,000 AABOR
• 2023-05-03 Relisted — AABOR
• 2023-04-28 Contingent — AABOR
• 2023-03-03 Listed $112,000 AABOR
• 2023-03-01 Relisted — AABOR
• 2022-08-30 Relisted — AABOR
• 2022-06-21 Listed $105,000 AABOR
• 1993-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+43.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $266 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.