16630 Lonesome Quail Dr · Houston, TX 77489

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1979 6,899 sqft lot $104/sqft · 17% below area Est $242k · 17% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious home features four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, offering a versatile floor plan designed for comfortable living and plenty of room to grow. Whether you need space for family, a home office, or guests, this layout provides flexibility to fit a variety of lifestyles. The property includes a two-car attached garage, multiple living areas, and a private backyard with patio space, creating the perfect setting for relaxing evenings or entertaining friends and family. Inside, the home features a kitchen with modern finishes, including granite countertops, spacious bedrooms, and abundant natural light that enhances the warm and inviting atmosphere throughout the home. Located in a well-established residential neighborhood within Fort Bend ISD, the property offers convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, making commuting to Houston’s major employment centers easy and efficient. Affordably priced and move in ready, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Access to parks
• Private backyard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• KITCHEN WITH MODERN FINISHES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• ACCESS TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $281 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,364
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -17.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8618 Quail Vista Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+3%)	3mo	$267,000	$135	83
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-12%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	75
16323 Quail Echo Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+3%)	2mo	$269,000	$136	73
16327 Quail Echo Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	2,113 (+10%)	4mo	$220,000	$104	59
16626 Quail Run Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-14%)	6mo	$210,000	$128	57
16610 Quail Prairie Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-14%)	4mo	$239,500	$146	56
1858 Hilton Head Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,859 (-3%)	6mo	$189,000	$102	56
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-9%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	54
2422 Doverglen Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,848 (-4%)	1mo	$249,000	$135	51
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	50
8402 Bird Meadow Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-13%)	6mo	$249,900	$150	44
1410 Gentle Bend Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-15%)	1mo	$244,900	$150	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,837
• Equity at exit: $52,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,881
• Equity at exit: $59,055

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,315/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,933

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $190	+0% $133	+5% $77	+10% $20
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $50	+0% $133	+5% $216	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $184	base $133	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	45d	1	0.32mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	0.60mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.72mi
2222 Mountshire Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,700	$1.19	22d	1	0.81mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.82mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	14d	1	0.84mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	22d	1	0.94mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	0.94mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	1.06mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	18d	1	1.23mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	6d	1	1.28mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	1.37mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	21d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Pending 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Pending 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $200,000 Pending 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $200,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $225,000 1002-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

    This spacious home features four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, offering a versatile floor plan designed for comfortable living and plenty of room to grow. Whether you need space for family, a home office, or guests, this layout provides flexibility to fit a variety of lifestyles. The property includes a two-car attached garage, multiple living areas, and a private backyard with patio space, creating the perfect setting for relaxing evenings or entertaining friends and family. Inside, the home features a kitchen with modern finishes, including granite countertops, spacious bedrooms, and abundant natural light that enhances the warm and inviting atmosphere throughout the home. Located in a well-established residential neighborhood within Fort Bend ISD, the property offers convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, making commuting to Houston’s major employment centers easy and efficient. Affordably priced and move in ready, schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $235,000 Active 1002-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

    This spacious home features four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, offering a versatile floor plan designed for comfortable living and plenty of room to grow. Whether you need space for family, a home office, or guests, this layout provides flexibility to fit a variety of lifestyles. The property includes a two-car attached garage, multiple living areas, and a private backyard with patio space, creating the perfect setting for relaxing evenings or entertaining friends and family. Inside, the home features a kitchen with modern finishes, including granite countertops, spacious bedrooms, and abundant natural light that enhances the warm and inviting atmosphere throughout the home. Located in a well-established residential neighborhood within Fort Bend ISD, the property offers convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, making commuting to Houston’s major employment centers easy and efficient. Affordably priced and move in ready, schedule your showing today!

18. 2021-01-25
    soldstatus
19. 2021-01-22
    soldstatus Sold 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    This Missouri City two-story home offers a patio, granite countertops, and a two-car garage. This home is vacant and cleaned regularly.

20. 2021-01-08
    status Pending 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    This Missouri City two-story home offers a patio, granite countertops, and a two-car garage. This home is vacant and cleaned regularly.

21. 2020-12-28
    listed $190,000 Active 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    This Missouri City two-story home offers a patio, granite countertops, and a two-car garage. This home is vacant and cleaned regularly.

22. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus
23. 2015-04-30
    soldstatus
24. 2015-04-27
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2015-04-19
    status Pending
26. 2015-04-07
    status Option Pending
27. 2015-03-21
    status Active
28. 2015-03-03
    status Pending, Continue to Show
29. 2015-02-21
    status Active
30. 2015-02-18
    status Pending, Continue to Show
31. 2015-02-07
    status Option Pending
32. 2015-01-11
    listed $110,000 Active
33. 2014-03-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,315 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,315 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,315
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$378
• After-tax cash flow: $1,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+104.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-01-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-28 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-04-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-03-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-02-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-02-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-02-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-11 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2014-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,315 · -10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.