5976 Ballast Dr · Wimauma, FL 33598

$350,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,005 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 5,656 sqft lot $12/mo HOA ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bedroom home for sale in Wimauma, Florida! Designed for your lifestyle, the Serendipity features an open living area with luxury vinyl plank flooring under volume ceilings. Relax in your luxurious owner's suite with an elegant tray ceiling, dual vanities, a decorative tiled shower with glass enclosure, and two walk-in wardrobes. Plus, enjoy outdoor living on your large covered lanai! This home includes features and finishes hand-selected by our professional designers to provide you with enduring style, move-in convenience, and easy home maintenance: Open kitchen with: A counter-height island. 36-in. espresso birch wood cabinets with crown moulding and decorative kn

Key facts

• 5,656 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Permit number 25-0079074; Builder license CBC060256
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Hcmanagement; HOA required — $150 annually ($12.50 monthly); Community amenities include deed restrictions, playground, and pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 24)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Completed condition; Faces west
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Built as new construction; Slab foundation; Built by Highland Homes (Model: Serendipity)
• Exterior features: Irrigation equipment; Paved road access; CDD (community development district) participation; Lot about 0.13 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: In-wall pest system
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $351k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Wimauma — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $280,995 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-69,188
• Equity at exit: $62,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-101,190
• Equity at exit: $48,342

Cash invested: $98,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,840
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$439 /mo · $5,264/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,085

Max offer price $319,481

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,725
• Closing costs: $10,527
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2467 White Ladyfish Rd Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,100	$1.40	24d	1	0.23mi
5771 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,650	$1.20	24d	1	0.66mi
5757 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,630	$1.20	11d	1	0.67mi
5615 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2112	$3,000	$1.42	2d	1	0.68mi
17224 Auburn Arch Loop Wimauma, FL	2.0–4.0	2.5	1517	$2,900	$1.91	17d	20	1.09mi
17247 Southern Haven Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,300	$1.39	17d	1	1.28mi
17042 Oval Rum Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,500	$1.65	17d	1	1.39mi
17029 Blister Wing Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2328	$3,000	$1.29	1d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on marketlisting id $350,900 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $350,900 Active 1295-char remark
4. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus $460,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,656
• − Property taxes: −$5,264
• − Insurance: −$1,754
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,698
• − Management: −$2,698
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$10,208
• Taxable loss: −$8,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wimauma

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #699
• US rank: #14659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wimauma, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-23.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Listed $350,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $460,200 Public Records