68-101 Waialua Beach Rd #103 · Mokuleia, HI 96791

$359,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Condo public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1975 $598/sqft · 6% below area Est $382k · 6% under $668/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of Mokuleia Surf! This ground floor condo is just 2 blocks from the beach, offering cool breezes and beautiful mountain views. Embrace the North Shore lifestyle in this desirable Waialua location-close to surf spots, hiking trails, and the heart of Haleiwa Town. This fixer upper is ready for your custom touch-bring your ideas and transform this space into your perfect island retreat. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or searching for a second home, this property offers a great potential and the laid-back vibe that makes the North Shore so special.

Key facts

• Ground floor condo
• Waialua location
• Surf spots

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR CONDO
• 2 BLOCKS FROM THE BEACH
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WAIALUA LOCATION
• SURF SPOTS
• HIKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-529 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#112 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waialua Elementary School (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #26 of 183 statewide, top 14%, 442 students, 46% FRL); Waialua High & Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 61%, grade D-, #19 of 43 statewide, top 43%, 621 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hawaii Department Of Education average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $359k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,583 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,299
• List price: $359,000
• Delta: -6.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $35,626
• Equity at exit: $188,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $144,304
• Equity at exit: $314,591

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96791

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $961/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$668
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,519

Max offer price $265,583

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-326	-5% $-427	+0% $-529	+5% $-630	+10% $-732
Rent	-10% $-754	-5% $-641	+0% $-529	+5% $-416	+10% $-304
Rate	-1.0pp $-348	-0.5pp $-438	base $-529	+0.5pp $-622	+1.0pp $-716

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68-077 Akule St Unit B Waialua, HI	2.0	1.0	600	$2,800	$4.67	25d	1	0.07mi
68-041 Waialua Beach Rd Waialua, HI	2.0	1.0	600	$2,775	$4.62	46d	1	0.13mi
68-147 Akule St Unit A Waialua, HI	2.0	1.0	600	$2,800	$4.67	25d	1	0.14mi
68-036 Apuhihi St Waialua, HI	1.0	1.0	440	$1,900	$4.32	25d	1	0.18mi
68-269 Crozier Loop Waialua, HI	2.0	1.0	728	$4,150	$5.70	25d	1	0.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $668 · $8,016/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $359,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $377,000 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Discover the charm of Mokuleia Surf! This ground floor condo is just 2 blocks from the beach, offering cool breezes and beautiful mountain views. Embrace the North Shore lifestyle in this desirable Waialua location-close to surf spots, hiking trails, and the heart of Haleiwa Town. This fixer upper is ready for your custom touch-bring your ideas and transform this space into your perfect island retreat. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer, or searching for a second home, this property offers a great potential and the laid-back vibe that makes the North Shore so special.

18. 2005-01-21
    soldstatus $135,000
19. 2003-03-07
    soldstatus $43,000
20. 1991-08-27
    soldstatus $90,000
21. 1990-06-04
    soldstatus $42,500
22. 1987-11-01
    soldstatus $17,000
23. 1985-02-01
    soldstatus $24,000
24. 1982-01-01
    soldstatus $65,000
25. 1980-06-01
    soldstatus $300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $961 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$961
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − HOA: −$8,016
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$12,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,023
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Mokuleia

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #21514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mokuleia, HI
• County: Honolulu County · 963,448 people
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• Population (ZIP): 6,377
• Household income: $97,470
• Rent vs Own: 35.2% rent · 64.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 203.0

Population outlook (Honolulu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,072,641 people
• By 2030: 1,110,460 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,181,593 · +10.2%
• By 2050: 1,257,584 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 1,501,120 · +39.9%
• By 2100: 1,764,430 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Asian 32% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Russian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Honolulu

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.6) · D 59.9% · R 38.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.1pp · 2024: 21.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.6 2020: D+26.9 2016: D+29.9 2012: D+39.1 2008: D+41.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Current HPI: 473.2549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+25.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $377,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2005-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1990-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1987-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1982-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1980-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $961 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.