11893 Bridgevale Ave · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1952 8,398 sqft lot $116/sqft · 13% above area Est $89k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing 11893 Bridgevale, a fully renovated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in North St. Louis County. This property was recently tenant-occupied and leased at $1,200/month. The home has been updated with modern finishes including new flooring, cabinetry, and fresh paint, along with key functional spaces like a convenient main-level laundry area. Outside, the property features a large yard and detached one-car garage—adding to its long-term owner occupant or tenant appeal. Whether you’re looking to acquire a nice home or expand your portfolio, this property can be purchased individually or as part of a package. Don’t miss the opportunity to secure a performing asset in North County.

Key facts

• 8,398 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 7.9% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.38%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,747
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 12.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1209 Northdale Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	1mo	$79,900	$92	90
1231 Reale Ave	0.14mi	2/1.5	864 (0%)	2mo	$69,900	$81	90
1141 Walker Ave	0.27mi	2/1.5	864 (0%)	3mo	$105,000	$122	83
1136 Walker Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	3mo	$125,000	$145	78
1125 Walker Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	3mo	$114,999	$133	78
1221 Scott Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	4mo	$85,000	$98	77
1157 Scott	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	3mo	$137,900	$160	76
1135 Cove Ln	0.25mi	2/1.0	936 (+8%)	2mo	$85,000	$91	73
1200 Baron Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	2mo	$77,500	$90	72
12019 Krenning Ln	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	930 (+8%)	1mo	$119,900	$129	56
1072 Prigge Rd	0.43mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (+11%)	0mo	$99,900	$104	54
1459 Cove Ln	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	988 (+14%)	3mo	$79,900	$81	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,309
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $20,310
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $950/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $816

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11891 Bridgevale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.04mi
11930 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	44d	1	0.13mi
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	2d	1	0.15mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	24d	1	0.19mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.25mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	12d	1	0.35mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.38mi
1141 Scott Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	22d	1	0.39mi
1504 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,299	$1.28	4d	1	0.39mi
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.41mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.62mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,100	$1.04	2d	9	0.75mi
1585 Leonaire Ct Unit 1585-87 Leonaire St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	44d	1	1.00mi
1574 Leonaire Ct Unit 1510 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	44d	1	1.01mi
12367 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12367 I St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	24d	1	1.03mi
12401 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12415 A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	44d	1	1.09mi
1333 N Garden Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	626	$1,100	$1.76	44d	1	1.15mi
1342 N Garden Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	626	$1,100	$1.76	2d	3	1.19mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,035	$0.96	2d	3	1.27mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-05-13
   price $99,900 705-char remark

   Show marketing remark (705 chars)

   Introducing 11893 Bridgevale, a fully renovated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in North St. Louis County. This property was recently tenant-occupied and leased at $1,200/month. The home has been updated with modern finishes including new flooring, cabinetry, and fresh paint, along with key functional spaces like a convenient main-level laundry area. Outside, the property features a large yard and detached one-car garage—adding to its long-term owner occupant or tenant appeal. Whether you’re looking to acquire a nice home or expand your portfolio, this property can be purchased individually or as part of a package. Don’t miss the opportunity to secure a performing asset in North County.

3. 2026-04-17
   listed $109,900 Active 705-char remark

   Show marketing remark (705 chars)

   Introducing 11893 Bridgevale, a fully renovated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in North St. Louis County. This property was recently tenant-occupied and leased at $1,200/month. The home has been updated with modern finishes including new flooring, cabinetry, and fresh paint, along with key functional spaces like a convenient main-level laundry area. Outside, the property features a large yard and detached one-car garage—adding to its long-term owner occupant or tenant appeal. Whether you’re looking to acquire a nice home or expand your portfolio, this property can be purchased individually or as part of a package. Don’t miss the opportunity to secure a performing asset in North County.

4. 2025-05-16
   listed $124,900 Active
5. 2025-05-15
   historical
6. 2024-08-22
   soldstatus Closed
7. 2024-07-03
   status Pending
8. 2024-05-23
   price $57,000
9. 2024-04-17
   price $63,000
10. 2024-01-29
    listed $70,000 Active
11. 1979-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$950
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$755
• After-tax cash flow: $3,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+42.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Listed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $57,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-17 Price Changed $63,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-29 Listed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1979-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $950 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.