3459 Chestnut Ave · Baltimore, MD 21211

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1880 $109/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

List price is Opening Bid at the Online auction to be conducted on Auctioneers website. - Auction Auction ends Monday May 4, 2026 @ 1:00 PM. Calling All Bidders!! * * REHAB OPPORTUNITY * * Welcome to the heart of Hampden, Hon! This classic interior townhouse offers a multi-level layout with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. The main level features a comfortable living room, a dining area, and a convenient half bath, along with laundry hook-ups with access to the fenced in backyard, storage shed & one car garage/workspace. The upper level has 3 bedrooms room and 1 full bathroom. The lower level is fully finished with a bonus living space, utilities & storage. Features Include: 1-Car Garage Parking, Central A, Sump Pump, Fenced in Yard & Storage Shed. Put your renovation vision to life!

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Storage shed
• Multi-level layout

Tags

• MULTI-LEVEL LAYOUT
• FENCED IN YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• BONUS ROOM
• BONUS LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.11%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,041
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -58.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3459 Chestnut Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,104 (0%)	0mo	$312,700	$283	98
3610 Paine St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-2%)	1mo	$180,000	$167	84
3609 Chestnut Ave	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,161 (+5%)	2mo	$350,000	$301	82
848 Powers St	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,204 (+9%)	0mo	$270,900	$225	78
3602 Paine St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+4%)	2mo	$350,500	$306	77
832 W 35th St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+9%)	2mo	$340,000	$282	75
3659 Chestnut Ave	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,176 (+6%)	2mo	$355,000	$302	71
1212 Cox St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-5%)	2mo	$260,000	$248	66
3821 Roland Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+6%)	2mo	$320,000	$272	66
1523 Baldwin St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (-4%)	1mo	$289,900	$272	59
2821 Remington Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (+6%)	1mo	$265,000	$226	48
3405 Greenway #302	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,221 (+11%)	1mo	$265,000	$217	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $51,674
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $145,814
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21211

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,341 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,234/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $1,067

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,135	-5% $1,101	+0% $1,067	+5% $1,033	+10% $999
Rent	-10% $882	-5% $975	+0% $1,067	+5% $1,160	+10% $1,252
Rate	-1.0pp $1,128	-0.5pp $1,098	base $1,067	+0.5pp $1,036	+1.0pp $1,004

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3501 Chestnut Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,825	$1.53	25d	1	0.00mi
3429 Chestnut Ave Unit 5 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	900	$1,800	$2.00	25d	1	0.04mi
3429 Chestnut Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	750	$1,899	$2.53	25d	1	0.04mi
828 W 35th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,800	$1.50	25d	1	0.08mi
3507 Elm Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1204	$2,295	$1.91	25d	1	0.12mi
612 Harding Pl Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$2,200	$2.75	5d	1	0.16mi
3638 Keswick Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,500	$2.14	45d	1	0.17mi
3539 Roland Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$3,500	$2.65	45d	1	0.18mi
620 W 33rd St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,495	$2.08	21d	1	0.21mi
816 W 37th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,700	$1.84	5d	1	0.22mi
3100 Fallscliff Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	729	$2,660	$3.65	3d	10	0.34mi
727 W 40th St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$3,822	$3.47	3d	4	0.36mi
3744 Hickory Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	45d	1	0.40mi
1201 Union Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,575	$1.83	45d	1	0.43mi
3925 Beech Ave Unit 314 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,950	$1.86	5d	1	0.45mi
3534 Poole St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,600	$1.79	25d	1	0.45mi
305 W 31st St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,499	$1.67	45d	1	0.51mi
500 W University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$3,020	$3.16	3d	60	0.56mi
105 W 39th St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	753	$2,250	$2.99	5d	1	0.57mi
1527 W 36th St Unit 2ND FLOOR Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	45d	1	0.58mi
1109 W 40th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	944	$2,150	$2.28	5d	1	0.58mi
1109 W 40th St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1392	$2,150	$1.54	5d	1	0.58mi
315 W 30th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,450	$2.04	19d	1	0.59mi
315 W 30th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1250	$2,450	$1.96	17d	1	0.59mi
3811 Canterbury Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,495	$2.56	13d	5	0.61mi
108 W 39th St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$2,189	$1.62	4d	11	0.62mi
1 E University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,500	$2.39	5d	2	0.66mi
4014 Linkwood Rd Unit D Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,800	$1.80	45d	1	0.66mi
4032 Falls Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,650	$1.59	45d	1	0.69mi
4032 Falls Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,645	$1.58	45d	1	0.69mi
3501 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.5	916	$2,700	$2.95	3d	172	0.72mi
4119 Falls Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1316	$2,500	$1.90	45d	1	0.72mi
3201 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1532	$3,200	$2.09	4d	1	0.73mi
1011 W 42nd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1160	$2,100	$1.81	5d	1	0.74mi
3601 Greenway #101 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	5d	1	0.75mi
2752 Maryland Ave Unit 2ND FLOOR Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	19d	1	0.79mi
2641 N Howard St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1344	$2,800	$2.08	25d	1	0.84mi
325 W Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1470	$3,150	$2.14	5d	1	0.85mi
3130 Guilford Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,790	$2.56	19d	1	0.85mi
3126 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,770	$2.53	4d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   List price is Opening Bid at the Online auction to be conducted on Auctioneers website. - Auction Auction ends Monday May 4, 2026 @ 1:00 PM. Calling All Bidders!! * * REHAB OPPORTUNITY * * Welcome to the heart of Hampden, Hon! This classic interior townhouse offers a multi-level layout with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. The main level features a comfortable living room, a dining area, and a convenient half bath, along with laundry hook-ups with access to the fenced in backyard, storage shed & one car garage/workspace. The upper level has 3 bedrooms room and 1 full bathroom. The lower level is fully finished with a bonus living space, utilities & storage. Features Include: 1-Car Garage Parking, Central A, Sump Pump, Fenced in Yard & Storage Shed. Put your renovation vision to life!

2. 2026-04-18
   listed $120,000 Active 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   List price is Opening Bid at the Online auction to be conducted on Auctioneers website. - Auction Auction ends Monday May 4, 2026 @ 1:00 PM. Calling All Bidders!! * * REHAB OPPORTUNITY * * Welcome to the heart of Hampden, Hon! This classic interior townhouse offers a multi-level layout with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. The main level features a comfortable living room, a dining area, and a convenient half bath, along with laundry hook-ups with access to the fenced in backyard, storage shed & one car garage/workspace. The upper level has 3 bedrooms room and 1 full bathroom. The lower level is fully finished with a bonus living space, utilities & storage. Features Include: 1-Car Garage Parking, Central A, Sump Pump, Fenced in Yard & Storage Shed. Put your renovation vision to life!

3. 2017-09-15
   listed Active
4. 2017-09-15
   historical Temporarily Off-Market
5. 2017-09-15
   listed $315,000
6. 2017-09-15
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,234 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 3.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,234
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $11,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,772
• After-tax cash flow: $10,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 14,969
• Household income: $82,828
• Rent vs Own: 39.5% rent · 60.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -409.24%
• Current HPI: 458.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-61.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-15 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-09-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-15 Listed $315,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-15 Delisted — MRIS

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,234 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.