9409 Dalton Dr · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$174,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1954 10,820 sqft lot Est $204k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in the heart of Valley Station! Located in the desirable Valley Downs neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home features a functional split-bedroom floor plan and plenty of potential for the next owner. Major updates have already been completed, including a recently updated roof and replacement windows. The home primarily needs cosmetic improvements, making it an excellent option for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity through renovations. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major commuter routes. Property is being sold AS-IS. Seller will review all offers on Friday, June 19th. All offers are welcome. Don't miss this opportunity

Key facts

• Roof updated
• Windows updated
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• ROOF UPDATED
• WINDOWS UPDATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: No utilities listed
• Home design: Single-family ranch residence; One story
• Construction: Built in 1954; Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.25 acres; Subdivision: Valley Gardens

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (primary bedroom on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Cooling present
• Interior features: Living room on the first floor; First-floor primary bedroom; First-floor laundry; No basement; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dixie Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 333 students, 81% FRL); Robert Frost Sixth-Grade Academy (math 3% / reading 14%); Valley High (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 964 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,227 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9913 Appollo Ln	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,009 (-7%)	1mo	$212,000	$210	79
9935 Appollo Ct	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-3%)	3mo	$190,000	$182	76
9927 Donerail Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+5%)	2mo	$225,000	$198	70
5905 Alanadale Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,115 (+3%)	2mo	$215,000	$193	68
5306 Clover Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-2%)	3mo	$177,000	$166	68
9211 Pensive Ln	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,080 (0%)	1mo	$125,000	$116	68
9402 Cornflower Rd	0.60mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,109 (+3%)	2mo	$210,000	$189	59
9819 West Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,026 (-5%)	3mo	$147,000	$143	59
5313 Speedway Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	989 (-8%)	3mo	$185,000	$187	58
10010 Donau Ln	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,189 (+10%)	2mo	$200,000	$168	53
9613 Toledo Ln	0.53mi	3/1.0	950 (-12%)	1mo	$188,000	$198	52
9103 Chenault Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,217 (+13%)	2mo	$235,000	$193	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-22,272
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,583
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,037/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $168	+0% $118	+5% $69	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $58	+0% $118	+5% $178	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $163	base $118	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9905 Ponder Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1293	$1,555	$1.20	17d	1	0.20mi
9708 El Prado St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,755	$1.25	17d	1	0.46mi
10200 Renaissance Valley Way Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,904	$1.73	3d	29	0.47mi
9207 Fenmore Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	17d	1	0.53mi
6001 Reigh Count Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,605	$1.46	21d	1	0.54mi
4816 Andalusia Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1120	$1,399	$1.25	17d	1	0.63mi
9403 Burgoo King Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1168	$1,685	$1.44	17d	1	0.64mi
5002 Seville Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,465	$1.63	17d	1	0.64mi
10318 Greentree Ln Unit 10318-2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.65mi
10303 Torrington Rd Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	880	$1,100	$1.25	13d	1	0.66mi
4535 Stonestreet Rd Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	25d	1	0.71mi
4723 Granada Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,410	$1.48	13d	1	0.76mi
4721 Granada Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,325	$1.31	12d	1	0.77mi
4701 Palma Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	17d	1	0.80mi
5205 Church Rd Unit 101 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	933	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.84mi
5321 Juanita Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,499	$1.00	17d	1	1.04mi
5321 Juanita Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1417	$1,499	$1.06	25d	1	1.04mi
4700 Hawthorne Place Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	980	$1,124	$1.15	3d	1	1.09mi
4611 Flushing Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,430	$1.55	25d	1	1.19mi
6705 Yuma Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	3d	1	1.24mi
10818 Grafton Hall Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	17d	1	1.27mi
9913 Lochwick Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,495	$1.42	3d	1	1.38mi
11206 Willowick Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,300	$1.15	17d	1	1.43mi
4115 Glen Hill Manor Dr Unit 6 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$949	$0.86	25d	1	1.47mi
6917 Colrain Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,699	$1.40	17d	1	1.47mi
4119 Glen Hill Manor Dr Unit 10 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$849	$0.77	25d	1	1.49mi
4119 Glen Hill Manor Dr Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$949	$0.86	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $174,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,037
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$1,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$373
• After-tax cash flow: $1,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $174,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,037 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.