629 SE Willard Ave SE · Warren, OH 44483

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1941 0.29 ac lot Est $133k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 629 Willard Ave SE in Warren! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a versatile floor plan with a first-floor bedroom and half bath, while two additional bedrooms and a full bath are located on the second level. The spacious living room provides ample space for gathering and is complemented by a four-season room that offers additional living space year-round. The home features a formal dining room, a functional kitchen, and a generously sized mud room/flex space that can be utilized as a home office, sitting area, hobby room, or additional dining space to suit your needs. A full basement provides extra storage and utility space. Recent updates include a new roof and hot water tank

Key facts

• Four season room
• Formal dining room
• Full basement

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FOUR SEASON ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED MUD ROOM
• FULL BASEMENT
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Construction: Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.288 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Gas baseboard heating
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($983 rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.9% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Willard Avenue Pk-8 School (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,217 of 1,584 statewide, top 78%, 877 students, 0% FRL); Warren G Harding High School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #665 of 781 statewide, top 85%, 1,155 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 75% district-wide (75 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 Willard Ave SE	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,136 (-6%)	2mo	$130,000	$114	72
464 Meadowbrook Ave SE	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,235 (+2%)	4mo	$143,000	$116	71
1178 Meadowbrook Ave SE	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,184 (-2%)	3mo	$95,000	$80	70
781 Oak Knoll Ave SE	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,165 (-4%)	6mo	$119,900	$103	67
327 Adelaide	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (-5%)	6mo	$127,900	$112	66
696 Meadowbrook Ave SE	0.34mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (-6%)	2mo	$150,000	$132	66
200 Willard Ave SE	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,162 (-4%)	8mo	$139,000	$120	66
451 Homewood Ave SE	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,189 (-2%)	6mo	$68,000	$57	63
2026 Ada Ave SE	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,065 (-12%)	5mo	$89,900	$84	58
1100 Woodbine Ave SE	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,178 (-2%)	5mo	$42,500	$36	58
213 Kenmore Ave NE	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,142 (-6%)	6mo	$116,000	$102	57
1523 Edgehill Ave SE	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,108 (-8%)	7mo	$122,200	$110	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-5,182
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $7,627
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44483

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $983 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,443/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $796

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $172	+0% $147	+5% $122	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $108	+0% $147	+5% $186	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $170	base $147	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2232 Youngstown Rd SE Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	15d	1	0.44mi
840 Woodbine Ave SE Unit 838 Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	1009	$1,000	$0.99	15d	1	0.52mi
259 Perkinswood Blvd NE Warren, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	743	$845	$1.14	15d	3	0.54mi
1151 Kenilworth Ave SE Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	1207	$900	$0.75	15d	1	0.65mi
341 Charles AVE Warren, OH	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,100	$0.89	45d	1	0.90mi
1216 Hollywood St NE Warren, OH	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,050	$0.91	22d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $89,900 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,443
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$86
• After-tax cash flow: $1,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren City
• NCES district ID: 3904499
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $28,222
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8299
• State rank: #599 of 656 in OH

Livability — Warren

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #5068

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 25,805
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,805
• Household income: $49,017
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 989.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.50%
• Current HPI: 218.3455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+81.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $89,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-07-25 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-06-20 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-09-14 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2023-09-03 Price Changed $119,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-08-13 Listed $125,000 MLSNOW
• 2002-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2002-04-25 Listed $83,900 MLSNOW
• 1992-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,443 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.