396 S Pine Lake Dr · Oxford, MS 38606

$84,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 1986 0.49 ac lot $54/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just minutes from the sparkling waters of Sardis Lake, this 3-bed, 2-bath mobile home offers the perfect blend of quiet country living and endless outdoor adventure. The home shows some honest wear and tear, but its solid bones give you a strong foundation to refresh, redesign, or simply enjoy as-is. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with natural light, roomy bedrooms, and a comfortable living area ready to be transformed into your ideal retreat. Outside, the property provides plenty of space for boats, ATVs, gardening, or weekend gatherings under open skies. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway, a rental investment, or a full-time home near the lake, this property delivers incredible potential in a highly desirable location. A little vision will go a long way—this is your chance to create the lakeside life you've been dreaming of.

Key facts

• Quiet country living
• Natural light
• Space for atvs

Tags

• QUIET COUNTRY LIVING
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREA
• SPACE FOR BOATS
• SPACE FOR ATVS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 2.8% in Oxford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in MS, #285 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• South Panola School District (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #65 of 130 in MS (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Panola County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,345 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.49%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,525
• List price: $84,995
• Delta: -59.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $27,239
• Equity at exit: $12,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $76,443
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38606

• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,451 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $249/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $635

Max offer price $84,995

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $693	-5% $668	+0% $644	+5% $620	+10% $596
Rent	-10% $530	-5% $587	+0% $644	+5% $702	+10% $759
Rate	-1.0pp $687	-0.5pp $666	base $644	+0.5pp $622	+1.0pp $600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,249
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,995 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,995 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,995 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,995 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,995 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,995 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $84,995 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,995 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,995 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,995 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,995 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,995 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,995 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,995 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,995 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,995 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $110,000 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Just minutes from the sparkling waters of Sardis Lake, this 3-bed, 2-bath mobile home offers the perfect blend of quiet country living and endless outdoor adventure. The home shows some honest wear and tear, but its solid bones give you a strong foundation to refresh, redesign, or simply enjoy as-is. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with natural light, roomy bedrooms, and a comfortable living area ready to be transformed into your ideal retreat. Outside, the property provides plenty of space for boats, ATVs, gardening, or weekend gatherings under open skies. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway, a rental investment, or a full-time home near the lake, this property delivers incredible potential in a highly desirable location. A little vision will go a long way—this is your chance to create the lakeside life you've been dreaming of.

18. 2026-03-21
    price $120,000 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Just minutes from the sparkling waters of Sardis Lake, this 3-bed, 2-bath mobile home offers the perfect blend of quiet country living and endless outdoor adventure. The home shows some honest wear and tear, but its solid bones give you a strong foundation to refresh, redesign, or simply enjoy as-is. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with natural light, roomy bedrooms, and a comfortable living area ready to be transformed into your ideal retreat. Outside, the property provides plenty of space for boats, ATVs, gardening, or weekend gatherings under open skies. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway, a rental investment, or a full-time home near the lake, this property delivers incredible potential in a highly desirable location. A little vision will go a long way—this is your chance to create the lakeside life you've been dreaming of.

19. 2026-02-25
    listed $145,000 Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Just minutes from the sparkling waters of Sardis Lake, this 3-bed, 2-bath mobile home offers the perfect blend of quiet country living and endless outdoor adventure. The home shows some honest wear and tear, but its solid bones give you a strong foundation to refresh, redesign, or simply enjoy as-is. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with natural light, roomy bedrooms, and a comfortable living area ready to be transformed into your ideal retreat. Outside, the property provides plenty of space for boats, ATVs, gardening, or weekend gatherings under open skies. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway, a rental investment, or a full-time home near the lake, this property delivers incredible potential in a highly desirable location. A little vision will go a long way—this is your chance to create the lakeside life you've been dreaming of.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $249 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 169.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$249
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,393
• − Management: −$1,393
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,719
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $6,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Panola School District
• NCES district ID: 2804050
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,663
• Composite: 26.27/100
• National rank: #7250
• State rank: #65 of 130 in MS

Livability — Oxford

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #285

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 46,156
• Population (ZIP): 14,970

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,645 people
• By 2030: 31,477 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 28,894 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 26,108 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 19,292 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 12,787 · -60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 45% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: R (+14.8) · D 42.0% · R 56.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -14.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+8.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.06%
• Current HPI: 170.9606
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-24.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $110,000 NCMBR
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $120,000 NCMBR
• 2026-02-25 Listed $145,000 NCMBR

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $249 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.