1626 Aspen Ln · Emerald Lakes, PA 18355

$289,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,887 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1989 0.30 ac lot $96/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

First time ever offered in one of the Poconos' most sought-after private lake communities! This lovely chalet delivers the perfect blend of rustic charm and natural beauty, with soaring cathedral ceilings, exposed beams, walls of windows, and abundant natural light throughout. The warm wood-burning fireplace creates the perfect cozy retreat, while the spiral staircase leads to a massive loft-style primary suite complete with a full private bathroom overlooking the living space below. Hardwood floors run throughout the main level, featuring an extended second bedroom with sunroom access that flows directly onto the expansive private deck--ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the pea

Key facts

• Massive loft
• Private lake
• Private bathroom

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE
• SPIRAL STAIRCASE
• MASSIVE LOFT
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• EXPANSIVE PRIVATE DECK
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Crescent Lake; Directions available: Sullivan Trail to Crescent Lake Road, left onto Aspen Lane
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (maintenance of grounds); Community amenities: clubhouse, picnic area, playground

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open parking spaces; Driveway parking (gravel, private)
• Security: Prewired for security
• Utilities: Well water; Mound/septic tank/holding tank sewer options; 200+ amp electrical service
• Home design: Single-family house; Entry level: 1; Residential zoning; No common walls
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a single-story entry level (above grade finished area reported)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Shed(s); Front yard; Cleared lot; Gravel road frontage; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Fireplace heating (wood burning); Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Beamed ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; High ceilings; Ceiling fans; Skylights; Wood window frames; Window treatments; Unfurnished; Living room wood-burning fireplace; Prewired security
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet; Water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#974 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $289k implies a 2790% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,039 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.56%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-15,706
• Equity at exit: $106,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $13,365
• Equity at exit: $146,991

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18355

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,775/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,591

Max offer price $210,819

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-279	-5% $-361	+0% $-443	+5% $-524	+10% $-606
Rent	-10% $-603	-5% $-523	+0% $-443	+5% $-362	+10% $-282
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-369	base $-443	+0.5pp $-517	+1.0pp $-594

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $289,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $289,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-05-21
   listed $289,000 Active
6. 1987-06-02
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,775 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,171 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$395/yr (+$33/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,775
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$10,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Emerald Lakes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #974
• US rank: #10662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,628

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Armenian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Vietnamese 6% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Current HPI: 191.1566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+2790.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $289,000 PMAR
• 1987-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,775 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.