513 Lincoln Ave · Lake Wales, FL 33853

$74,995

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1946 5,767 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. INVESTOR & FIRST-TIME BUYER ALERT – Super Affordable Polk County Cottage! Turn-key potential meets unbeatable affordability! This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family cottage is the perfect addition to your rental portfolio or an ideal starter home. Featuring an inviting screened-in front porch and a spacious, open backyard, this property offers functional living with plenty of room to grow. Location Highlights: 10 Minutes: Downtown town center, major supermarkets, and popular restaurants. 15 Minutes: Lake Wales Park, Lake Wales Country Club, and Jump Florida Skydiving. Surrounding Area: Surrounded by Central Florida&rsqu

Key facts

• 5,767 sq ft lot
• Built 1946
• Listed 11 days

Tags

• SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS OPEN BACKYARD
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE PRESERVES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential, R-3 zoning
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (and other sewer); Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Faces southwest
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.13-acre lot
• Exterior features: Balcony; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Other interior features; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($848 rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,995

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-3,138
• Equity at exit: $11,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $8,929
• Equity at exit: $6,484

Cash invested: $20,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33853

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $848 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,251/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $669

Max offer price $74,995

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $162	+0% $141	+5% $120	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $108	+0% $141	+5% $175	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $160	base $141	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,749
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
522 Washington Ave Unit 1 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,200	$1.96	24d	1	0.12mi
318 Pearl St Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$875	$1.46	24d	1	0.15mi
315 D St Unit 2 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	624	$900	$1.44	20d	1	0.16mi
622 Booker Ave Unit B Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	640	$895	$1.40	24d	1	0.17mi
324 Pearl St Unit 2 Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$795	$1.59	24d	1	0.18mi
238 C St Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$700	$1.17	24d	1	0.19mi
242 C St Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$600	$1.00	24d	1	0.19mi
115 Washington Ave Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$600	$1.00	24d	1	0.20mi
131 B St Unit 3 Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	425	$600	$1.41	24d	1	0.21mi
104 W Stuart Ave Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,100	$1.53	4d	1	0.70mi
244 E Park Ave Unit 203 Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	614	$1,400	$2.28	24d	1	0.81mi
157 E Northside Dr #1 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	624	$1,000	$1.60	24d	1	0.92mi
335 E Central Ave Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	450	$995	$2.21	15d	1	0.99mi
414 1/2 S Miami St Unit A Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	544	$700	$1.29	24d	1	1.16mi
414 1/2 S Miami St Unit B Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	544	$650	$1.19	24d	1	1.16mi
711 Springer Dr Lake Wales, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	4d	2	1.18mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,995 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,995 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,995 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,995 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,995 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,995 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,995 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 689-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $74,995 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,251 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,251 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,251
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$814
• − Management: −$814
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$130
• After-tax cash flow: $1,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Wales, FL
• City population: 30,351
• Population (ZIP): 12,385

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 36% Black 19% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 18% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.98%
• Current HPI: 333.8292
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+312.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $74,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Listed $84,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Listed $84,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-17 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-24 Listed $143,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-20 Sold (MLS) $22,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-21 Listed $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,251 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.