10018 S Xavier St #137 · Conroe, TX 77303

$114,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 123 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition $76/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.2

Listing remarks

Experience comfortable, modern living in this beautiful 4-bed, 2-bath home offering an open-concept space. This home features no carpet, sleek modern finishes, and a bright, airy layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. With spacious bedrooms and a contemporary design throughout, this home blends style and functionality for the perfect living experience.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 122 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 884 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,195 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,264
• List price: $114,995
• Delta: -50.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11811 Stratosphere St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+9%)	2mo	$259,990	$158	60
10757 Altitude Way	0.93mi	4/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	4mo	$285,000	$180	54
10906 Ozone Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+20%)	2mo	$267,990	$148	53
11891 Stratosphere St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+20%)	1mo	$269,990	$149	52
11729 Airspeed Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+20%)	9mo	$249,990	$138	47
9554 Hindo Dr	0.81mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-8%)	4mo	$275,000	$198	43
10500 Fawn Mist Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (-18%)	2mo	$374,500	$301	38
10604 Altitude Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (+17%)	2mo	$268,252	$151	34
12340 N Chestnut Hills Dr	1.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (+19%)	1mo	$319,000	$178	34
10583 Altitude Way	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-16%)	7mo	$230,990	$181	32
10552 Fallow Ln	0.79mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,217 (-20%)	5mo	$330,000	$271	30
9731 Gulfstream Dr	1.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-15%)	9mo	$211,990	$165	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-4,833
• Equity at exit: $17,146

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,357
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active
• Months of supply: 84.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $109,995 ($78/sqft)
• Median days on market: 148 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +96.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 884
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $114,995

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $319	+0% $279	+5% $239	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $172	-5% $225	+0% $279	+5% $333	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $308	base $279	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,749
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11085 Pine Acre Trails Blvd Conroe, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1290	$1,699	$1.32	4d	1	0.48mi
10726 Sunlit St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	66d	1	0.50mi
12340 N Chestnut Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,900	$1.06	34d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $114,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family style (spec plan named 10018 S Xavier St)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1512
• Exterior features: Address: 10018 S Xavier St #137, Conroe, TX 77303

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction inventory type)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $114,995 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $114,995 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $114,995 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $114,995 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $114,995 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $114,995 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $114,995 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $114,995 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $114,995 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $114,995 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $114,995 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $114,995 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $114,995 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $114,995 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $114,995 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $114,995 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $114,995 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $114,995 Active 99 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $114,995 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $114,995 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $114,995 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $114,995 Active 95 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $114,995 Active 94 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $114,995 Active 93 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $114,995 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $114,995 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $114,995 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $114,995 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $114,995 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $114,995 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $114,995 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $114,995 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $114,995 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $114,995 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $114,995 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $114,995 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $114,995 Active 78 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $114,995 Active 76 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $114,995 Active 75 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $114,995 Active 72 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $114,995 Active 71 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $114,995 Active 70 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $114,995 Active 69 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $114,995 Active 67 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $114,995 Active 63 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,995 Active 62 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,995 Active 61 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,995 Active 58 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,995 Active 57 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,995 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$387
• After-tax cash flow: $2,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,560–$22,680 screening

This modern, move-in-ready manufactured home offers a bright, open-concept layout with sleek finishes and contemporary design.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Modern faucet improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patterson El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $114,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family style (spec plan named 10018 S Xavier St)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1512
• Exterior features: Address: 10018 S Xavier St #137, Conroe, TX 77303

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction inventory type)