955 N New Moon Dr · Oracle, AZ 85623

$187,650

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1982 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home on 1.25 acres in quiet Oracle.

Key facts

• 1.25 acre lot
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.2% in Oracle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#152 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oracle Elementary District (4444) (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #159 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Vista School (math 15% / reading 30%, grade F, #679 of 1,109 statewide, top 62%, 399 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $188k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,650

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.68%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $431,640
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
955 N New Moon Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,980 (0%)	0mo	$187,650	$95	100
1480 N Calle Zamora --	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,965 (-1%)	15mo	$329,000	$167	71
1450 W Linda Vista Rd	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-6%)	2mo	$405,000	$218	60
913 N Two O'clock Hill Rd	0.41mi	3/3.0	2,070 (+4%)	16mo	$508,000	$245	56
1250 N Caminito	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,867 (-6%)	15mo	$395,000	$212	51
1276 N Javelina St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,144 (+8%)	12mo	$480,000	$224	48
200 N Holiday Dr	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,726 (-13%)	3mo	$425,000	$246	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,806
• Equity at exit: $27,979

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $13,594
• Equity at exit: $16,225

Cash invested: $52,542 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85623

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$984
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,708/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,525

Max offer price $187,650

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,912
• Closing costs: $5,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2320 W Calle Grato Oracle, AZ	3.0	2.0	1916	$1,895	$0.99	43d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 71-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $187,650 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,511
• − Property taxes: −$1,708
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$5,459
• Taxable income: $485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$117
• After-tax cash flow: $3,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oracle Elementary District (4444)
• NCES district ID: 0405640
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $60,899
• Composite: 20.97/100
• National rank: #8469
• State rank: #159 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oracle

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #152
• US rank: #17707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oracle, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 5,235

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.00%
• Current HPI: 237.4886
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+128.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-06-04 Listed $187,650 MLSSAZ
• 1987-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,708 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.