15818 Waverly Dr · Houston, TX 77032

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1961 0.33 ac lot $71/sqft · 26% below area Est $188k · 26% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is full of potential and ready for your vision! Situated on a large lot with easy access to major highways, this home presents an incredible opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize a home to their own style. Whether you’re planning a full remodel or a creative transformation, the possibilities are endless. Conveniently located near IAH Airport, shopping, dining, and commuter routes, this property offers both location and opportunity.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Large lot
• Commuter routes

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• EASY ACCESS
• IAH AIRPORT
• SHOPPING
• DINING
• COMMUTER ROUTES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Detached garage options (attached/detached garage listed)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1961; Single-level living area of 1,960; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (possible)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (29.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Calvert El (math 22% / reading 19%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 539 students, 94% FRL); Teague Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 1,180 students, 87% FRL); Aldine H S (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 2,663 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $419 of equity ($968 loan paydown + $-549 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,306 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,242
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -25.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2011 Greenbriar Colony Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,832 (-6%)	19mo	$214,900	$117	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.39% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-25,856
• Equity at exit: $37,930

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-42,396
• Equity at exit: $43,474

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77032

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,717/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,830

Max offer price $98,306

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-196	+0% $-236	+5% $-276	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-296	+0% $-236	+5% $-176	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-166	-0.5pp $-200	base $-236	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15625 Weldon Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1564	$1,295	$0.83	18d	1	0.22mi
2130 Greenbriar Colony Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1786	$1,450	$0.81	1d	1	0.41mi
2130 Greenbriar Colony Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1786	$1,450	$0.81	24d	1	0.41mi
15509 Aldine Westfield Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1848	$1,500	$0.81	26d	1	0.50mi
2200 N Sam Houston Pkwy E Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	944	$1,710	$1.81	1d	25	0.96mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $150,000 Active 487-char remark
17. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,717 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,717 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,717
• − Insurance: −$5,818
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$5,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,403
• Household income: $43,725
• Rent vs Own: 65.7% rent · 34.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 944.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Black 37% Two or more races 22% White 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.39%
• Current HPI: 336.6839
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.51%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,717 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.