11 Nicole Rd · Pasco, WA 99301

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 565 Days on market

Built 1998 $50/sqft · 87% below area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 280094 Home Is a Marlette Good Sense Home with Lap Siding, was a Granny Home and One owner, Needs to be Moved. Has a large kitchen with plenty of cabinet space, Pantry and Island. Oven/Range and refrigerator stay with the home. Kitchen has a nice sized dining area. Master Bed room has a full bath room, has shelving and one sink vanity, with large counter space. Master bed room also has a walk-in closet. There is room separation between the 2 bed rooms and the master bed room. Nice sized utility room, washer and dryer stay with the home. Home needs to be moved from present location at buyers expense.

Key facts

• Room separation
• Walk-in closet
• Built 1998

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN WITH PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ROOM SEPARATION
• UTILITY ROOM WITH WASHER/DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.3% vs local median 3.0% in Pasco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#104 in WA, #1,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Pasco School District (suburban): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #242 of 291 in WA (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edwin Markham Elementary (198 students, 60% FRL); Mcloughlin Middle School (1,078 students, 64% FRL); Chiawana Senior High School (2,999 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 711 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 981 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (517 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 565 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 565 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.90%
• DSCR: 4.33
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $549,495
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -87.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $64,453
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.55×
• Total profit: $147,936
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99301

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 711
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $610/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $1,223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $566

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,263	-5% $1,243	+0% $1,223	+5% $1,204	+10% $1,184
Rent	-10% $1,056	-5% $1,140	+0% $1,223	+5% $1,307	+10% $1,390
Rate	-1.0pp $1,259	-0.5pp $1,241	base $1,223	+0.5pp $1,205	+1.0pp $1,187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-11-22
   price $70,000 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   MLS# 280094 Home Is a Marlette Good Sense Home with Lap Siding, was a Granny Home and One owner, Needs to be Moved. Has a large kitchen with plenty of cabinet space, Pantry and Island. Oven/Range and refrigerator stay with the home. Kitchen has a nice sized dining area. Master Bed room has a full bath room, has shelving and one sink vanity, with large counter space. Master bed room also has a walk-in closet. There is room separation between the 2 bed rooms and the master bed room. Nice sized utility room, washer and dryer stay with the home. Home needs to be moved from present location at buyers expense.

2. 2025-04-03
   price $80,000 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   MLS# 280094 Home Is a Marlette Good Sense Home with Lap Siding, was a Granny Home and One owner, Needs to be Moved. Has a large kitchen with plenty of cabinet space, Pantry and Island. Oven/Range and refrigerator stay with the home. Kitchen has a nice sized dining area. Master Bed room has a full bath room, has shelving and one sink vanity, with large counter space. Master bed room also has a walk-in closet. There is room separation between the 2 bed rooms and the master bed room. Nice sized utility room, washer and dryer stay with the home. Home needs to be moved from present location at buyers expense.

3. 2024-11-08
   listed $90,000 Active 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   MLS# 280094 Home Is a Marlette Good Sense Home with Lap Siding, was a Granny Home and One owner, Needs to be Moved. Has a large kitchen with plenty of cabinet space, Pantry and Island. Oven/Range and refrigerator stay with the home. Kitchen has a nice sized dining area. Master Bed room has a full bath room, has shelving and one sink vanity, with large counter space. Master bed room also has a walk-in closet. There is room separation between the 2 bed rooms and the master bed room. Nice sized utility room, washer and dryer stay with the home. Home needs to be moved from present location at buyers expense.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $610 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$76/yr (+$6/mo · 12.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$610
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $14,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,455
• After-tax cash flow: $11,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco School District
• NCES district ID: 5306570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,454
• Composite: 33.78/100
• National rank: #10401
• State rank: #242 of 291 in WA

Livability — Pasco

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1999

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin County · 87,044 people
• City population: 87,044
• Metro: Kennewick-Richland, WA
• Population (ZIP): 87,044
• Household income: $87,951
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1556.0

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 108,530 people
• By 2030: 118,705 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 140,053 · +29.0%
• By 2050: 162,360 · +49.6%
• By 2075: 217,667 · +100.6%
• By 2100: 264,533 · +143.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 37% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.7) · D 37.4% · R 60.1% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.0pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -22.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.7 2020: R+14.5 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+25.2 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.74%
• Current HPI: 284.481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Metro: Kennewick-Richland, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $70,000 PACMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $80,000 PACMLS
• 2024-11-08 Listed $90,000 PACMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $610 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.