709 Little River Dr · Conroe, TX 77316

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2021 6,216 sqft lot $163/sqft · 5% above area Est $236k · 5% over $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience a truly one-of-a-kind floor plan in the sought-after Lake Conroe area, just minutes from the heart of Conroe. Designed to impress, this home offers a bright, open-concept layout that’s perfect for entertaining and everyday living. From the moment you arrive, the award-winning landscaping creates stunning curb appeal and a warm welcome. Situated directly across from the community’s favorite lakes, enjoy easy access to fishing, swimming, and paddleboarding—bringing a lifestyle of relaxation and fun right to your doorstep. The 2-car garage adds everyday convenience, while the home’s unique design makes it stand out from the rest. Whether you’re hosting gatherings or creating unforgettable memories, this home offers the perfect blend of charm, location, and lifestyle. Schedule your showing today and do not miss out on this one of a kind home!

Key facts

• Unique design
• Curb appeal
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• AWARD-WINNING LANDSCAPING
• CURB APPEAL
• UNIQUE DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $234k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,068
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 5.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1007 W Cedar River Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+4%)	0mo	$275,000	$174	84
1015 Chickasaw Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-1%)	9mo	$270,000	$179	79
705 Little River Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,365 (-10%)	4mo	$199,900	$146	76
1014 Platte River Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (-5%)	3mo	$164,000	$114	73
1113 W Cedar River Rd	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,632 (+7%)	7mo	$229,900	$141	70
1006 Franconia Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,423 (-7%)	4mo	$225,000	$158	64
919 N Hunting Tower Run Run	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+3%)	6mo	$550,000	$352	64
408 Pimmit Hill Run	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-15%)	0mo	$200,000	$154	55
109 Moonspinner	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+4%)	6mo	$225,000	$142	55
517 Chickasaw Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-15%)	2mo	$229,900	$177	54
519 Chickasaw Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,326 (-13%)	8mo	$225,000	$170	50
508 Navajo Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-8%)	1mo	$234,990	$167	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,998
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,211
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,864/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,310

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	0.15mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	2d	1	0.88mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	7d	1	0.94mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	44d	1	0.97mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	21d	1	1.01mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	4d	1	1.01mi
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	21d	1	1.07mi
4777 Holly Ln W Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,450	$0.85	19d	1	1.08mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	1.28mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	44d	1	1.35mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	44d	1	1.36mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	1.40mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	1.45mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,702	$1.84	2d	20	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $249,000 Active 891-char remark

    Show marketing remark (891 chars)

    Experience a truly one-of-a-kind floor plan in the sought-after Lake Conroe area, just minutes from the heart of Conroe. Designed to impress, this home offers a bright, open-concept layout that’s perfect for entertaining and everyday living. From the moment you arrive, the award-winning landscaping creates stunning curb appeal and a warm welcome. Situated directly across from the community’s favorite lakes, enjoy easy access to fishing, swimming, and paddleboarding—bringing a lifestyle of relaxation and fun right to your doorstep. The 2-car garage adds everyday convenience, while the home’s unique design makes it stand out from the rest. Whether you’re hosting gatherings or creating unforgettable memories, this home offers the perfect blend of charm, location, and lifestyle. Schedule your showing today and do not miss out on this one of a kind home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,864 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,864 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,864
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$1,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$429
• After-tax cash flow: $2,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $249,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+37.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,864 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.