Cavco 77 Rolling Hills Estates Plan · Lower Frankford, PA 17015

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring yourself home to this brand new 3 bed 2 bath home from Cavco homes. A luxury kitchen meant to entertain - you'll find in this open concept home upgraded stainless steel appliances, beverage fridge and large kitchen island. Living room with electric fireplace and formal dining with window access to covered porch. The master suite is fully equipped with a double vanity sink, walk-in closet, stand-alone tub and tiled shower. Large bedrooms and utility room with washer/dryer hook-ups, central air, and full energy star efficiency. Storage shed and driveway included. Relax in this beautiful home at our community, Rolling Hills in Carlisle, PA. Take a tour with us today.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Covered porch
• Luxury kitchen

Tags

• LUXURY KITCHEN
• BEVERAGE FRIDGE
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price available (active plan listing)

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric-powered utilities; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Cavco 77 Rolling Hills Estates)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home — Cavco 77 Rolling Hills Estates

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($804/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Big Spring SD (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #162 of 539 in PA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mount Rock Elem Sch (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 327 students, 37% FRL); Big Spring Ms (math 21% / reading 59%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 593 students, 44% FRL); Big Spring Hs (math 57% / reading 24%, grade F, #255 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 739 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,053 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-33,781
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,791
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $148	+0% $67	+5% $-14	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-18	+0% $67	+5% $152	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $127	base $67	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 678-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $235,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $1,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has a high resale and rental value due to its modern design and well-maintained exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Painting can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping can improve the curb appeal and add value to the property, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Painting can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping can improve the curb appeal and add value to the property, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Spring SD
• NCES district ID: 4203660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,941
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2942
• State rank: #162 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Frankford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B