258 Mary Kay Ln #258 · Oildale, CA 93308

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 2018 3,500 sqft lot $76/sqft · at area comps Est $99k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the sought-after Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park. Built in 2018, this modern residence showcases a clean, contemporary design with stylish gray tones and a bright, open feel throughout. Every detail has been thoughtfully refreshed, featuring new paint, updated interior fixtures, and a turnkey finish that makes this home truly move-in ready. The well-designed layout includes a spacious living area, a functional kitchen, and a dedicated laundry room for added convenience. Step outside and enjoy low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for easy living and relaxing evenings. Riverdale Village offers an exceptional lifestyle wi

Key facts

• Community pool
• Modern residence
• Turnkey finish

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• MODERN RESIDENCE
• TURNKEY FINISH
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Label/serial numbers present for unit; Unit features: Porch
• HOA & community: Park name: Riverdale Village / Creekside Manor; Space rent listed as $795 (verify with park); Park deposit listed as verify with park; Deposit $1,000

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Cable TV available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Located in a managed park (Riverdale Village / Creekside Manor); All ages community; 52 feet long by 11 feet wide; Porch included; Space number 258
• Construction: Tile roof; Built/Manufactured October 2018; Champion Home model CM3522D; Skirted exterior
• Exterior features: Pool (community); Security gate; Carport; Skirted (mobile home); Lot approximately 3,500 sq ft

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.47%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -4.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Mary Kay Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	98
48 Cedarwood Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	92
131 Fernwood Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	15mo	$120,000	$96	81
4 Dogwood Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	74
300 Florence Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	20mo	$99,500	$77	74
316 Nita	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	7mo	$82,500	$61	71
282 Florence Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	16mo	$111,000	$96	71
305 Kings Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-9%)	13mo	$99,900	$88	71
159 Hickorywood Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$99,000	$74	71
278 Teakwood Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	21mo	$104,900	$78	68
170 Hickorywood Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+6%)	19mo	$95,000	$72	63
153 Hickorywood Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (+10%)	15mo	$38,000	$28	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $19,385
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $58,417
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93308

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $630	-5% $597	+0% $565	+5% $532	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $504	+0% $565	+5% $626	+10% $687
Rate	-1.0pp $612	-0.5pp $589	base $565	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	3d	1	0.26mi
627 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	967	$1,575	$1.63	44d	1	0.29mi
706 Huskey Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$1,450	$1.74	44d	1	0.32mi
213 Oildale Dr Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$1,195	$1.29	3d	1	0.37mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	3d	1	0.41mi
819 Washington Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	767	$1,295	$1.69	3d	1	0.50mi
327 McCord Ave Unit 6 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	0.53mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	3d	1	0.57mi
611 Wilson Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	44d	1	0.66mi
222 Moneta Ave Unit 222 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	3d	1	0.67mi
419 Washington Ave Unit 417 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	3d	1	0.67mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	3d	1	0.70mi
901 Castaic Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,700	$1.58	3d	1	0.75mi
1405 Yosemite Dr Unit 1405 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,100	$1.54	44d	1	0.82mi
1207 El Tejon Ave Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,950	$1.61	3d	1	0.86mi
709 Francis St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	44d	1	0.93mi
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	11d	1	0.99mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,495	$1.51	3d	1	1.11mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,595	$1.61	15d	1	1.11mi
1905 McCray St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	736	$1,450	$1.97	3d	1	1.14mi
1951 Golden State Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1017	$1,695	$1.67	3d	2	1.23mi
411 Highland Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1051	$1,650	$1.57	3d	1	1.27mi
615 W China Grade Loop Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	3d	6	1.30mi
3817 K St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	763	$1,285	$1.68	3d	1	1.40mi
1201 40th St Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,219	$1.40	3d	1	1.46mi
210 Douglas St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1274	$1,400	$1.10	3d	1	1.46mi
2600 Park Meadows Dr Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	3d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $95,000 Active 1135-char remark
16. 2020-07-01
    price $85,500
17. 2020-05-22
    price $87,950
18. 2019-09-27
    price $93,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $5,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beardsley Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0604260
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $28,808
• Composite: 9.63/100
• National rank: #9841
• State rank: #501 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oildale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #20848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oildale, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,078
• Household income: $62,445
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2931.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 825.65
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $95,000 AVMLS
• 2020-07-01 Price Changed $85,500 GEMLS
• 2020-05-22 Price Changed $87,950 GEMLS
• 2019-09-27 Price Changed $93,000 GEMLS