538 Queen St · Northumberland, PA 17857

$94,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Other · 20 Days on market

Built 1850 7,200 sqft lot $70/sqft · 43% below area Est $165k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NORTHUMBERLAND SINGLE FAMILY HOME ON LARGE LOT WITH 3 BEDROOMS. . GAS HEAT READY FOR NEW OWNERS. . CALL DEBBIE BROUSE 570-286-6344 Square Footage is derived from County Assessor's records. Room sizes are approximate. Neither is guaranteed. BUYER / BUYER'S AGENT is to verify both''. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1850
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single Family Residence (Residential); Facing/Zoning: R; Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 240
• Construction: Built with frame construction and asbestos materials; Shingle roof; No foundation details listed
• Exterior features: Porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7; Has basement with exterior entry and sump pump
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Has basement (exterior entry, sump pump)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#423 in PA, #3,861 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shikellamy SD (town): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #362 of 539 in PA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,082 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.72%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,751
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: -42.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $6,756
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $34,298
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17857

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,037/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $373	+0% $347	+5% $320	+10% $293
Rent	-10% $250	-5% $298	+0% $347	+5% $395	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $371	base $347	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 313-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   price $94,500 313-char remark
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $99,500 Active 313-char remark
4. 2011-05-03
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,265 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,037
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $2,798
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$671
• After-tax cash flow: $3,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shikellamy SD
• NCES district ID: 4221540
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $41,227
• Composite: 33.6/100
• National rank: #5415
• State rank: #362 of 539 in PA

Livability — Northumberland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #3861

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northumberland, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,682

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: French 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.84%
• Current HPI: 191.4259
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+45.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — CSVBR
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $94,500 CSVBR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $99,500 CSVBR
• 2011-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,037 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.