510 Duterrow Rd SE #22 · Lacey, WA 98513

$115,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1989 $64/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! Set in a well-kept, all-ages community, this 1,792 sq ft manufactured home offers affordability, space, comfort, and flexibility in a convenient location. Built in 1989, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 remodeled bathrooms, including a thoughtfully updated primary bath. The kitchen is designed for everyday living and entertaining with an island and generous counter space, opening to multiple living areas that allow for gathering, a home office space, and quiet retreat. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard where a large outbuilding provides excellent storage or workspace potential. Additional parking is available behind the home. While the address is Olympia, the home is l

Key facts

• Workspace potential
• Updated primary bath
• Large outbuilding

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED PRIMARY BATH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE OUTBUILDING
• EXCELLENT STORAGE
• WORKSPACE POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $799 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.91%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,000
• List price: $115,500
• Delta: -50.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Duterrow Rd SE #33	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,792 (0%)	18mo	$80,000	$45	82
439 Duterrow Rd SE #14	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	3mo	$235,000	$145	77
510 Duterrow Rd SE #37	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	11mo	$70,000	$42	77
510 Duterrow Rd SE #23	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	16mo	$110,000	$65	75
9101 Steilacoom Rd SE #158	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,792 (0%)	10mo	$91,900	$51	66
8839 Daffodil Ln SE	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,940 (+8%)	9mo	$420,000	$216	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $68,114
• Equity at exit: $17,221

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $174,426
• Equity at exit: $9,986

Cash invested: $32,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98513

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$606
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,121/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $1,345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $946

Max offer price $115,500

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,875
• Closing costs: $3,465
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Copper Wood Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,742	$1.54	5d	1	0.53mi
9129 Skokomish Way NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,650	$1.82	21d	1	0.66mi
1136 Pinedrop Loop SE Olympia, WA	3.0	1.5	1352	$2,400	$1.78	44d	1	0.77mi
9701 Amanda Dr NE Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	2250	$2,950	$1.31	44d	1	0.82mi
1203 Wynoochee Pl NE Olympia, WA	4.0	3.0	1755	$2,450	$1.40	44d	1	0.90mi
8400 Ostrom Ave SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2251	$3,250	$1.44	44d	1	1.02mi
1446 Laredo Dr SE Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	14d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,500 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,500 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,500 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,500 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $115,500 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,500 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,500 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-02-19
    status Active
17. 2026-02-17
    status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
18. 2026-02-11
    listed $119,500 Active
19. 2023-10-13
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed
20. 2023-09-21
    status Pending
21. 2023-09-16
    status Active
22. 2023-09-08
    status Pending
23. 2023-09-05
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$11/yr (+$1/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,470
• − Property taxes: −$1,121
• − Insurance: −$578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − Depreciation: −$3,360
• Taxable income: $15,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,641
• After-tax cash flow: $12,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,017
• Household income: $113,053
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Black 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.44%
• Current HPI: 337.436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $119,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-13 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-16 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-05 Listed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,121 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.