81 Beach Rd · Wading River, NY 11792

$649,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 265 Days on market

Built 1954 0.28 ac lot $409/sqft · 12% below area Est $666k · at est. $25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST REDUCED. Enjoy the North Fork lifestyle in Wildwood Shores Estates with private Long Island Sound beach access nearby. 81 Beach Road, Wading River is a welcoming 3BR/2BA Cape featuring a first-floor bedroom and full bath, hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances, and a sunlit dining area that opens to a mahogany deck, great for gatherings and outdoor dining. The second level offers two bedrooms, including the primary with dual closets, plus a full bath. The .28-acre lot provides outdoor space and potential for a pool or additional garage (subject to permits). A 1-car garage plus two driveways offer plenty of parking. A comfortable home base close to the sound, shown by appointment.

Key facts

• Mahogany deck
• Inground pool
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• MAHOGANY DECK
• INGROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($93/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $571k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $571k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in Wading River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#779 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($571k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $320k; list at $649k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $570,575 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $665,860
• List price: $649,000
• Delta: -2.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Peach St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-1%)	12mo	$770,000	$490	71
164 Maple Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,800 (+14%)	5mo	$555,000	$308	66
208 Sylvan Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+9%)	10mo	$625,000	$362	56
39 Hill St E	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,685 (+6%)	5mo	$615,000	$365	49
2354 N Wading River Rd	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-6%)	7mo	$525,000	$353	47
6 4th St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (-2%)	21mo	$600,000	$387	45
10 Gerald St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-8%)	14mo	$555,000	$379	44
12 Bayberry Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+7%)	22mo	$700,000	$412	40
82 Oakwood Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (+14%)	19mo	$685,000	$381	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-104,576
• Equity at exit: $96,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-90,040
• Equity at exit: $56,114

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11792

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,706 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$801 /mo · $9,611/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,198
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,696

Max offer price $649,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Cliff Rd Unit 1510785P Wading River, NY	3.0	3.0	1711	$5,070	$2.96	24d	1	0.70mi
212 Creek Rd Unit 1510784P Wading River, NY	4.0	3.0	1797	$6,360	$3.54	21d	1	1.38mi
184 Creek Rd Unit 1510783P Wading River, NY	3.0	2.0	1722	$5,010	$2.91	24d	1	1.45mi
126 Overhill Rd Wading River, NY	3.0	2.5	1600	$7,000	$4.38	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,000 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,000 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,000 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,000 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,000 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,000 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,000 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,000 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $649,000 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $649,000 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $649,000 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $649,000 Active 247 DOM
14. 2025-10-27
    price $649,000 698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (698 chars)

    JUST REDUCED. Enjoy the North Fork lifestyle in Wildwood Shores Estates with private Long Island Sound beach access nearby. 81 Beach Road, Wading River is a welcoming 3BR/2BA Cape featuring a first-floor bedroom and full bath, hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances, and a sunlit dining area that opens to a mahogany deck, great for gatherings and outdoor dining. The second level offers two bedrooms, including the primary with dual closets, plus a full bath. The .28-acre lot provides outdoor space and potential for a pool or additional garage (subject to permits). A 1-car garage plus two driveways offer plenty of parking. A comfortable home base close to the sound, shown by appointment.

15. 2025-09-25
    listed $692,000 Active 698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (698 chars)

    JUST REDUCED. Enjoy the North Fork lifestyle in Wildwood Shores Estates with private Long Island Sound beach access nearby. 81 Beach Road, Wading River is a welcoming 3BR/2BA Cape featuring a first-floor bedroom and full bath, hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances, and a sunlit dining area that opens to a mahogany deck, great for gatherings and outdoor dining. The second level offers two bedrooms, including the primary with dual closets, plus a full bath. The .28-acre lot provides outdoor space and potential for a pool or additional garage (subject to permits). A 1-car garage plus two driveways offer plenty of parking. A comfortable home base close to the sound, shown by appointment.

16. 2016-05-25
    soldstatus $320,000
17. 2015-09-25
    historical
18. 2015-05-29
    listed $249,500
19. 2015-04-07
    historical
20. 2015-02-14
    listed $294,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,611 · $801/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,290 · $857/mo
• Expected delta: +$678/yr (+$57/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$9,611
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,478
• − Management: −$5,478
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$10,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,610
• After-tax cash flow: $2,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wading River

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #779
• US rank: #14836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wading River, NY
• City population: 8,562
• Population (ZIP): 8,562

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.79%
• Current HPI: 344.4308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+120.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Listed $692,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-29 Listed $249,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-14 Listed $294,850 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,611 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.