313 Grandview Dr · Arcade, NY 14009

$84,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition $96/sqft · 31% above area Est $65k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Home, carport and shed- Under construction, we still have some finishing touches to complete on this home. It is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath. Open concept Kitchen - Livingroom. Master bath has 60" shower. Separate laundry room. Stainless Steel Refrigerator, stove and dishwasher. This home is Arcade electric but also has natural gas. Great location close to stores. Buyer must be park approved Still to be completed is a new concrete driveway, new steps under carport and landscaping.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2026
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#774 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.86%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,000
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: 30.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 Parkview Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	952 (+8%)	4mo	$42,000	$44	75
12 Southview Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	784 (-11%)	4mo	$88,500	$113	71
337 Circle Ct	0.10mi	2/2.0	980 (+11%)	13mo	$38,500	$39	65
89 Autumnview Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	924 (+5%)	19mo	$14,500	$16	62
60 Southview	0.08mi	2/2.0	980 (+11%)	20mo	$70,000	$71	61
433 Bristol Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	880 (0%)	18mo	$84,000	$95	59
5 Southview Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+11%)	20mo	$43,000	$44	57
56 Aristo Ter	0.49mi	2/1.0	840 (-4%)	19mo	$25,000	$30	50
335 Circle Ct	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+11%)	22mo	$37,500	$38	49
66 Circle Ct	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,005 (+14%)	22mo	$40,000	$40	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $32,275
• Equity at exit: $51,496

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $88,135
• Equity at exit: $91,809

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14009

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12100 Countyline Rd Arcade, NY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,015	$1.25	15d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   New Home, carport and shed- Under construction, we still have some finishing touches to complete on this home. It is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath. Open concept Kitchen - Livingroom. Master bath has 60" shower. Separate laundry room. Stainless Steel Refrigerator, stove and dishwasher. This home is Arcade electric but also has natural gas. Great location close to stores. Buyer must be park approved Still to be completed is a new concrete driveway, new steps under carport and landscaping.

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $84,900 Active 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   New Home, carport and shed- Under construction, we still have some finishing touches to complete on this home. It is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath. Open concept Kitchen - Livingroom. Master bath has 60" shower. Separate laundry room. Stainless Steel Refrigerator, stove and dishwasher. This home is Arcade electric but also has natural gas. Great location close to stores. Buyer must be park approved Still to be completed is a new concrete driveway, new steps under carport and landscaping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$974
• − Management: −$974
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$122
• After-tax cash flow: $1,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is under construction with some finishing touches still to be completed. It requires new concrete driveway, steps under the carport, and landscaping to be move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major New concrete driveway — The listing mentions that a new concrete driveway is still to be completed.
• Major New steps under carport — The listing mentions that new steps under the carport are still to be completed.
• Major Landscaping — The listing mentions that landscaping is still to be completed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete landscaping — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install new concrete driveway — A new concrete driveway improves accessibility and enhances the home's curb appeal.
• Both Install new steps under carport — New steps under the carport improve functionality and enhance the home's curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
New concrete driveway · The listing mentions that a new concrete driveway is still to be completed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
New steps under carport · The listing mentions that new steps under the carport are still to be completed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · The listing mentions that landscaping is still to be completed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete landscaping — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new concrete driveway — A new concrete driveway improves accessibility and enhances the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Both Install new steps under carport — New steps under the carport improve functionality and enhance the home's curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608970
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,735
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2885
• State rank: #358 of 590 in NY

Livability — Arcade

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #774
• US rank: #14787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,787

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 281.8451
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS